November Highlights:

• LOUDOUN COUNTY HOME PRICES UP 9%
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UP 1.4%
  September marked the largest month-to-month fall in prices in over 6 years. During October and November, prices have held steady in Northern Virginia preparing for the close of the year. Loudoun County was the November outlier among NoVa's main sub-markets, quietly setting an all-time median price high of $725,000, eclipsing $720,000 set in both March 2023 and April 2022. Overall, home prices are up 3.5% for the year in Northern Virginia.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Tracking Near 2023 Low
  Showings are tracking the typical seasonal downtrend. However, there has been a recent uncharacteristic spike in showings the past month likely in response to declining mortgage rates.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 33% from October to November
  This compares to typically DOWN 31% last 5 years.
  
  
• November Listings DOWN 37% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to Nov DOWN 23% (7,550 homes).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 1.08 (shift to sellers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.36 months
  Inventory still remains below November 2022 levels of 1.61 months.
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price steady at 100.0% (no change Oct to Nov).
  
  
• Buyers are Finding Less Competition
  As of the week ending December 10, Listing and Showing movement are nearly equal. Seller listings are 65% below the 2023 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 56%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers are navigating with less competition than earlier in the year. HOWEVER, there are still pockets of remarkable competition at certain price points, especially when rates opportunistically decline. As mentioned last month, a detached home in the Chantilly HS pyramid in pristine condition listed at $769,900 and received (41) offers! The home closed at $908,000 last week, escalating 18%, marking very unusual buyer behavior in today's market.
  
  
• Fed Meets Dec 13: EXPECTED TO REMAIN at 5.25%
  The futures market is pricing with 98% certainty the Fed will hold rates unchanged at tomorrow's policy meeting making it the third consecutive meeting with no change in rates. Despite this, the Fed has indicated there may be more to do with inflation still well above their target.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.1%, UP 0.1% Oct to Nov
  As reported today, inflation fell very slightly from 3.2 to 3.1% year-over-year. Month-to-month was up 0.1%. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates FALL to the Upper 6's
  Rates have steadily declined the last month from nearly 8% to the upper 6% level not seen since July. The decline can be attributed to inflation relaxing to the low 3's and certain data suggesting the economy is cooling possibly pointing to the Fed's work being complete. The current tug-of-war appears to be more about how long will the Fed hold existing rates, rather than will they be increasing rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.