June Highlights:

• PRICES PEAK FOR YEAR; BEGIN TYPICAL SEASONAL DECLINE
  
  
• Loudoun County Hits All-Time Price High 
  Home prices finished strongly in June. The median price in Northern Virginia held nearly even with May. Loudoun County home prices surged even higher, hitting a fresh all-time high of $818,000 beating March 2025 by $8,000. All major sub-markets in Northern Virginia have now hit new all-time price highs. Peak annual prices have been reached and now begin the usual seasonal decline which is already underway by mid-July. The three important top-line market metrics continue to hold toward sellers through June, but will likely soften into summer. Here is June 2026 compared to June 2025 - Active Listings (UP 12%), Days on Market (NO CHANGE), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (UP 40bp). Active Listings spiked up from just 4% in May to 12% in June, presenting buyers with more choices. By comparison, Active Listings were UP 51% in June 2025 vs June 2024.
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 3% in 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) in June were DOWN 4%, likely due to rising interest rates. There were 4,250 fewer buyer showings in the D.C. metro area in June 2026 than in June 2025. The average age of a first-time homebuyer surged to 40 years old. Up from 33 years old in 2021 and 29 years old in 1981.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 5% from May to June
  This is relatively close to last month DOWN 9% and consistent with the typical average DOWN 8% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• June Listings DOWN 7% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain slightly down compared to long-term averages (-7%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. This increasing supply helped to increase total homes sold in Jan-Jun 2026 (14,811) compared to Jan-Jun 2025 (13,948) - UP 6%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. However, in 2025, sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market (UP 8%). Seller behavior has thus far followed through this year UP 4.5% through June. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.64 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 39% of the total June listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 61%. This is a marked shift toward buyers from the 44/56 seen in May, and is pacing about 8% slower than the 41/59 seen in June 2025. Seller Price Reductions are holding at relative highs, now tracking 36% of the current 4,500 Active listings in mid-July. The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  
  
• Inventory UP 9% vs. June 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia is relatively steady in 2026 after 2025's fast-paced uptrend over 2024. However, June inventory of 1.98 months did begin to outpace and separate from the 1.82 months in June 2025 (UP 9%). This presents a relatively balanced buyer-seller market compared to 2020-24 when June inventory ranged from just 0.90 to 1.27 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio UP 40bp with Fewer Active Listings
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.7% of Seller Asking in June - down from 100.5% in May. This is up 40 basis points from the 99.3% experienced in June 2025 likely a result of the fewer Active Listings. An improving Sold-to-List Price Ratio is typical in spring months with rising Contract Ratios. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 21% in mid-July is tracking more buyer-advantaged than normal.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is SLIGHTLY UP from 2025
  Speed to contract has improved for sellers in recent months as is typical in spring, but the post-Memorial Day inflection point has occurred beginning a relatively slower speed to contract. In June, 56% of the 3,222 homes sold transacted in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), down from 65% in May, but up from 53% in June 2025. By contrast, 20% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market - same as June 2025. This is a slight difference between now and last year. In June 2025, 53% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while 56% in June 2026, up 3 points.

• Fed June Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the June meeting. However, the committee released a dramatically shortened statement that eliminated language hinting at future rate cuts. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged from Fed action as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled for July 29. The futures market has experienced a marked change in sentiment, presently pricing a 70% chance of no rate change with a 30% chance of a rate increase.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.5%, FALLS to 0.4% May to Jun
  Inflation fell in June to 3.5% year-to-year compared to May (4.2%). Inflation month-to-month decreased to 0.4% from May's 0.5%. Both numbers were better than the market expected. "Core Inflation" decreased to 2.6% from last month's 2.9%. Core inflation excludes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY in Low/Mid 6's
  With the recent increase in inflation, mortgage rates have been pressured upward. Rates are steady, but up about 5/8 point since the Feb/Mar lows. Conforming rates are hovering around 6.5% and VA/FHA rates at 6.125%.