March Highlights:

• WEEKLY ACTIVE LISTINGS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET; PRICES FLAT
  
  
• Weekly Active Listings at 2-Year Low
  The movement of Weekly Active Listings is a good, secondary indicator of how supply and demand for homes are moving. During the five years before March 2024, the current number of Weekly Active Listings compared to the same week the year before was consistently lower underscoring excess demand and low inventory. Throughout 2024 and 2025, that measurement flipped with Weekly Active Listings higher than the year before, averaging 30 to 40% higher. This meant about 2,500 more homes in the D.C. metro area, pushing inventory higher as well as helping to balance the market between buyers and sellers. In 2026, this gap has declined week by week to its present 2-year low of just 1%, about 100 homes. Contrast this with New Listings from sellers (supply) which are generally flat through March (-1.4%). The result points to an uptick in buyer demand in recent months absorbing excess supply, and shifting the three important top-line market metrics toward sellers. Here is March 2026 compared to March 2025 - Active Listings (UP 1%), Days on Market (UP 32%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 50bp). By comparison, Active Listings were UP 59% in March 2025 vs March 2024.
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 3% in March 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) are up slightly in March 2026 over March 2025 (3%). However, this despite a significant decline in showings during parts of the winter when severe weather occurred. Despite the recent uptick in interest rates, March showings were still UP 2.8%. 
  
  
• Listings UP 54% from February to March
  This bettered last March UP 49% as well as the typical average UP 43% during the last 6 years. March and April are seasonally the strongest months of the year for New Listings.
  
  
• March Listings DOWN 9% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-9%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. March saw a significant increase in listings compared to last year (UP 13%). This new supply helped to increase total homes sold in Jan-Mar 2026 (5,392) compared to Jan-Mar 2025 (5,098) - UP 6%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market in 2025 (UP 8%). This trend continued into 2026 with January listings UP 6% over Jan-2025. Thus far through March, New Listings are DOWN 1.4%, about 100 homes. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 0.97 (shift toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 49% of the total March listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 51%. This is a further shift toward sellers from the 46/54 seen in February, and is running somewhat better than the 47/53 seen in March 2025. The shift toward sellers speaks to the marked drop in Weekly Active Listings previously mentioned in this report. Seller pricing remains relatively steady with Seller Price Reductions at 26% of currently Active listings. The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  
  
• Inventory STEADY at DOWN 2% vs. March 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia is steady in 2026 after 2025's fast-paced uptrend over 2024. March inventory of 1.37 months was almost equal to the 1.39 months in March 2025. Inventory has been held down with the rapid decline in Weekly Active Listings (currently just 1% higher - 100 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when March inventory ranged from just 0.48 to 1.20 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.2% of Seller Asking in March. This is down from the 100.7% experienced in March 2025 and up from 99.3% last month. An improving Sold-to-List Price Ratio is typical in spring months with rising Contract Ratios. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 12% is tracking more seller-advantaged than normal.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2025
  Speed to contract improves for sellers, but continues its relatively slower pace with 60% of the 2,276 homes sold in March transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is up significantly from 51% in February as seasonally experienced. By contrast, 24% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, down from 35% last month. This is a moderate difference between now and last year. In March 2025, 66% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while 60% in March 2026, down 6 points.

• Fed March Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the March meeting. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged from Fed action as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled for April 29. The futures market is presently pricing a 98% chance of no change in April.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.3%, RISES to 0.9% Feb to Mar
  Inflation spiked in March to 3.3% year-to-year compared to February (2.4%). Inflation month-to-month also spiked to 0.9% from February's 0.3%. Both numbers were in line with expectations given the recent rapid rise in energy prices. "Core Inflation" increased slightly to 2.6% from last month's 2.5%. Core inflation excludes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES to Low 6's
  With the recent stock market decline, mortgage rates increased with investor flight to safety. Rates increased about 1/2 point to 6.375% before trending down in recent days. Conforming rates are hovering around 6.125% and VA/FHA rates at 5.875%. Rates are still trading at a relative three-year low.

February Highlights:

• JANUARY TO FEBRUARY PRICE SPIKES UP 8.7%
  
  
• February Price Rebounds from January Decline - What's Next?
  The median price in February spiked UP 8.7% after January's decline DOWN 1.7%. This is attributed to two things: (1) relatively high showings (buyer demand), and (2) a relatively recent and large 17-point decline in Weekly Active Listings (currently UP 12% compared to 29% this time last year). February's surge pushed the average YTD price to UP 0.8% after January opened DOWN 1.7%. It takes about three months of data to get a sense of the probable trend for the year. Despite February strength, our three important market metrics are all generally tracking significant buyer-friendly variances from February 2025 as was the case for most of last year - Active Listings (UP 12%), Days on Market (UP 41%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 110bp).
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 3% in February 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) are up slightly in February 2026 over February 2025 (3%). However, this is despite a significant decline in showings during the recent snow/ice storm. In the weeks before the storm, showings were pacing about 15% above 2025. 
  
  
• Listings UP 6% from January to February
  This significantly lags last February's UP 24% as well as the typical average UP 18% during the last 6 years. The decline in listings may have been weather-related, contributing to the 8.7% spike in pricing.
  
  
• February Listings DOWN 16% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-16%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. Northern Virginia saw slightly more homes sold in Jan-Feb 2026 (3,062) than in Jan-Feb 2025 (3,038) - UP 1%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market in 2025 (UP 8%). This trend continued into 2026 with January listings UP 6% over Jan-2025. It's now only UP 0.4% through February, likely related to the inclement weather. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 0.84 (shifting toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 46% of the total February listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 54%. This is a further shift toward sellers from the 44/56 seen in January and 40/60 in December, and is relatively consistent with the 45/55 seen in February 2025. The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged like last year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (27% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 11% vs. February 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia moved higher in 2025 and continues to trend into 2026. February inventory was on the lower range at 1.21 months as seasonally experienced, but is UP 11% over February 2025 (1.09 mos). During most of the seasonal selling period in 2025, inventory traded between 1.76 and 1.91 months, significantly outpacing 2024 by 35 to 60%. Since March 2024, weekly Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 12% higher - 850 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when February inventory ranged from just 0.34 to 0.96 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.3% of Seller Asking in February. This is notably down from the 100.4% experienced in February 2025. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen in 2025 and now into 2026. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 11% is tracking more seller-advantaged than normal.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2025
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 51% of the 1,658 homes sold in February transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is up significantly from 32% in January as seasonally experienced. By contrast, 35% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, down from 50% last month. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In February 2025, 61% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 51% in February 2026, down 10 points.

• Fed January Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the January meeting. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled for March 18. The futures market is presently pricing a 99% chance of no change in March.
  
  
• Headline Inflation STEADY at 2.4%, RISES to 0.3% Jan to Feb
  Inflation was unchanged in February at 2.4% year-to-year compared to January (2.4%). Inflation month-to-month slightly increased to 0.3% from January's 0.2%. Both numbers were in line with expectations. "Core Inflation" was unchanged from last month's 2.5%. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at High 5's
  Mortgage rates are steady at relative lows after trending down for several months. Conforming rates are holding just below 6% and VA/FHA rates at 5.625%. Rates are trading at a three-year low.

January Highlights:

• JANUARY PRICE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2016
  
  
• Average Price Opens Year DOWN 1.7% vs. Jan 2025
  It's only one month into the year, but it does mark an important variation from past years that should be monitored. The last time the average home price in Northern Virginia opened the year down was ten years ago in January 2016. By comparison, since 2020-25 January prices have opened the year on average up 7.5%. Last year, prices opened up 11% in January and ended the year up 4%. It takes about three months of data to get a sense of the probable trend for the year. Generally, inventory remains seller-advantaged at 1.04 months in January, but is up 23% from January 2025. The increase in inventory is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant buyer-friendly variances from January 2025 as was the case for most of last year - Active Listings (UP 23%), Days on Market (UP 33%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 130bp).
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 2% in January 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) are up slightly in January 2026 over January 2025 (2%). However, this is despite a significant decline in showings during the recent snow/ice storm. Before the storm, showings during the first few weeks of January were pacing about 15% above 2025. 
  
  
• Listings UP 85% from December to January
  The seasonal spike in New Listings (supply) from December to January occurred as expected. However, this January's UP 85% is outpacing both Jan-2025 (UP 69%) and the typical average UP 54% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• January Listings DOWN 8% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-8%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. Northern Virginia saw fewer homes sold in January 2026 (1,357) than in January 2025 (1,429) - DOWN 5%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market in 2025 (UP 8%). This trend continued into 2026 with January listings UP 6% over Jan-2025. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.77 (slight shift toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 44% of the total January listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 56%. This is a slight shift toward sellers from the 40/60 seen in December and is relatively consistent with the 46/54 seen in January 2025. The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged like last year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (30% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 23% vs. January 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia moved higher in 2025 and continues to trend into 2026. January inventory was on the lower range at 1.04 months as seasonally experienced, but is UP 23% over January 2025. During most of the seasonal selling period in 2025 inventory traded between 1.76 and 1.91 months, significantly outpacing 2024 by 35 to 60%. Since March 2024, weekly Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 20% higher - 1,150 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when January inventory ranged from just 0.32 to 0.88 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 97.7% of Seller Asking in January. This is notably down from the 99.0% experienced in January 2025. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen in 2025 and now into 2026. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 11% is tracking more seller-advantaged than normal.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2025
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with only 32% of the 1,357 homes sold in January transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is unchanged from December. By contrast, 50% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 45% last month. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In January 2025, 43% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 32% in January 2026, down 11 points.

• Fed January Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the January meeting. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled for March 18. The futures market is presently pricing a 92% chance of no change in March.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.4%, FALLS to 0.2% Dec to Jan
  Inflation fell in January to 2.4% year-to-year compared to December (2.7%). Inflation month-to-month slightly improved to 0.2% from December's 0.3%. Both numbers were better than expected. "Core Inflation" fell slightly to 2.5% from last month's 2.6%. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at High 5's
  Mortgage rates are steady at relative lows after trending down for several months. Conforming rates are holding at 5.875% and VA/FHA rates at 5.625%. Rates are trading at a three-year low.

December Highlights:

• TWO FACTS IN 2025; SHIFTING MARKET & PRICES UP 4.4%
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Winter
  The upward trend in inventory since spring stabilized into fall and early winter. Northern Virginia home inventory traded in a relatively tight range from 1.76 to 1.91 months during April to October. November inventory fell to 1.43 months then followed through falling to 1.04 months in December. This is typical end of year behavior with fewer New Listings from sellers. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly from the previous November (+38%) and December (+33%). The increase in inventory is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant buyer-friendly variances from December 2024 - Active Listings (UP 34%), Days on Market (UP 40%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 120bp). Despite this market shift toward buyers, prices held relatively strong in 2025 finshing the year UP 4.4%. The increase lags long-term and short-term averages. Long-term, Northern Virginia is UP 5.25% per year since 1975, and UP 7.5% per year since 2020.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 3% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, since June showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. Showings were not even impacted by the 43-day government shutdown in October/November as they were materially the same to slightly higher than the same time last year. Turning to now in January, showings last week were UP 19% compared to the same week last year. 
  
  
• Listings DOWN 27% from November to December
  The December decline was not as sharp as November which was DOWN 43%. December was relatively on pace with the typical average DOWN 31% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• December Listings DOWN 23% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-23%). Northern Virginia saw 1% more homes sold in 2025 (28,527) than in 2024 (28,296).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Finally, sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market in 2025 (36,285) compared to 2024 (33,758) - UP 8%. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.68 (advantage buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 40% of the total December listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 60% - unchanged from November. However, this is a marked change from December 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.89 (47% Under Contract and 53% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged this year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (32% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 33% vs. December 2024
  Inventory in Northern Virginia moved higher in 2025. Most of the year inventory traded between 1.76 and 1.91 months, significantly outpacing 2024 by 35 to 60%. Since March 2024, weekly Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 29% higher - 1,400 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when December inventory ranged from just 0.39 to 0.80 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 97.8% of Seller Asking in December. This is notably down from the 99.0% experienced in December 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into winter. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 23% is tracking higher than usual for this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 33% of the 2,103 homes sold in December transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is down from 38% in November. By contrast, 45% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 39% last month. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In December 2024, 44% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 33% in December 2025, down 11 points.

• Fed December Meeting: RATE CUT to 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate 1/4 point to 3.50% on December 10. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged after the cut as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) had likely priced in the cut. The next meeting is scheduled for January 28. The futures market is presently pricing a 95% chance of no change this month.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.7%, STEADY at 0.3% Nov to Dec
  Inflation fell in December to 2.7% year-to-year compared to November (3.0%). Inflation month-to-month was unchanged at 0.3%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" remained unchanged from last month at 2.6%. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate EDGES DOWN into High 5's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down. Last week, rates fell slightly, putting Conforming rates at 5.875% and VA/FHA rates at 5.5%. Rates are trading at a three-year low. Last week's decline may be short-lived since it was primarily due to a purchase of $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

November Highlights:

• BALANCED MARKET TRENDING; PRICES REMAIN UP 4.2% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Fall
  The upward trend in inventory over the last several months appears to be stabilizing. Inventory in Northern Virginia has traded in a relatively tight range from 1.76 to 1.91 months from April to October. November inventory fell to 1.43 months with the typical high pace decline in late-year seller New Listings. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly (38%) from the 1.04 months experienced in November 2024. The increase in inventory is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from November 2024 - Active Listings (UP 41%), Days on Market (UP 26%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 100bp). Home prices appear to be plateauing in 2025 year-over-year with deceleration month-to-month. Prices began the year UP 11% but have settled down the last four months at UP 4%. Home prices in the City of Falls Church sub-market are the first to turn negative for the year (-4%). However, it should be noted that the City of Falls Church is the smallest sub-market in our area with only 160 homes sold YTD.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 3% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, since June showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. Showings were not even impacted by the recent 43-day government shutdown as they were materially the same to slightly higher than the same time last year.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 43% from October to November
  This is a somewhat faster pace than the DOWN 33% in November 2024 as well as the typical average DOWN 32% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• November Listings DOWN 24% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-24%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Nov (26,324) are tracking UP 1% compared to 2024 (26,120).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Nov (34,957) are UP 8% compared to Jan-Nov 2024 (32,341). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 0.70 (slight shift toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 41% of the total November listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 59%. This is a shift toward sellers from the 36/64 ratio in October. However, this is a relatively significant change from November 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.90 (47% Under Contract and 53% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged this year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (41% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 38% vs. November 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. November inventory was 1.43 mos, 38% higher than November 2024 inventory of 1.04 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 32% higher - 2,100 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when November inventory ranged from just 0.59 to 1.08 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.0% of Seller Asking in November. This is notably down from the 99.0% experienced in November 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into fall. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 15% is typical of this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 38% of the 1,961 homes sold in November transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is similar to recent months. By contrast, 39% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, also similar to recent months. However, this is a significant difference between now and last year. In November 2024, 48% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 38% in November 2025, down 10 points.

• Fed December Meeting: RATE CUT to 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate 1/4 point to 3.50% on December 10. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged after the cut as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) had likely priced in the cut. The next meeting is scheduled for January 28. The futures market is presently pricing a 76% chance of no change next month.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.0%, RISES 0.3% Sep to Oct
  November inflation data is scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this Thursday, December 18. Last month, inflation increased slightly from September 2.9% to October 3.0% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also rose slightly from 0.2 to 0.3%. Both numbers were slightly below expectations. Likewise, "Core Inflation" increased somewhat from 2.9% in September to 3.0% in October. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at Low 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down and stabilize in the low-6 range. Rates are at the low end of a 6 to 7.25% trading range seen for almost three years. Rates have seen the low 6's in January 2023, October 2024, and now. VA/FHA rates broke the 5 barrier (now 5.75%). Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming rates are tracking the 6.125% range with Jumbo rates higher (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

October Highlights:

• BALANCED MARKET TRENDING; PRICES STILL UP 4.4% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Fall
  The upward trend in inventory over the last several months appears to be stabilizing. Inventory in Northern Virginia has traded in a relatively tight range from 1.76 to 1.91 months since April. October inventory was 1.79 mos. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly (36%) from last year. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from October 2024 - Active Listings (UP 40%), Days on Market (UP 29%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 150bp). Home prices appear to be plateauing in 2025 year-over-year with deceleration month-to-month. Prices began the year UP 11% but have settled down the last three months at UP 4%. Home prices in the City of Falls Church sub-market are the first to turn negative for the year (-3%). However, it should be noted that the City of Falls Church is the smallest sub-market in our area with only 148 homes sold YTD.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 3% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, since June showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. Overall, showings have not been impacted by the 43-day government shutdown with showings materially the same to slightly higher than this time last year.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 14% from September to October
  This is consistent with the DOWN 11% in October 2024 as well as the typical average DOWN 12% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• October Listings DOWN 12% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-12%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Oct (24,312) are tracking UP 1% compared to 2024 (24,067).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Oct (33,205) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Oct 2024 (30,448). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.59 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 36% of the total October listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 64% - little change from Jul/Aug/Sep. However, this is a relatively significant change from October 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.81 (43% Under Contract and 57% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged this year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (41% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 36% vs. October 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. October inventory was 1.79 mos, 36% higher than October 2024 inventory of 1.32 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 35% higher - 2,600 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when October inventory ranged from just 0.90 to 1.31 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.1% of Seller Asking in October. This is notably down from the 99.6% experienced in October 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into fall. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 13% is typical of this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 42% of the 2,470 homes sold in October transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is similar to recent months. By contrast, 34% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, also similar to recent months. However, this is a significant difference between now and last year. In October 2024, 53% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 42% in October 2025, down 11 points.

• Fed October Meeting: RATE CUT to 3.75%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate 1/4 point to 3.75% on October 29. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged after the cut as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) had likely priced in the cut. The next meeting is scheduled for December 10. The futures market is presently pricing a 57% chance of another 1/4 point rate cut.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.0%, RISES 0.3% Aug to Sep
  As reported on October 24, inflation increased slighlty from August 2.9% to September 3.0% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also rose slightly from 0.2 to 0.3%. Both numbers were slightly below expectations. Likewise, "Core Inflation" increased somewhat from 2.9% in August to 3.0% in September. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at Low 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down and stabilize in the low-6 range. Rates are at the low end of a 6 to 7.25% trading range seen for almost three years. Rates have seen the low 6's in January 2023, October 2024, and now. VA/FHA rates broke the 5 barrier (now 5.75%). Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming rates are tracking the 6.125% range with Jumbo rates higher (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

September Highlights:

• BALANCED MARKET TRENDING; PRICES STILL UP 4.3% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Fall
  The recent upward trend in inventory over the last several months appears to be stabilizing. Inventory in Northern Virginia has traded in a relatively tight range from 1.76 to 1.91 months since April. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly (36%) from last year. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from September 2024 - Active Listings (UP 42%), Days on Market (UP 35%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 100bp). Home prices appear to be plateauing in 2025 year-over-year with clear deceleration month-to-month. Prices began the year UP 11% and have decelerated to UP 4% now. Home prices in the City of Falls Church sub-market are the first to turn negative for the year (-3%). However, it should be noted this is the smallest sub-market in our area with only 130 homes sold YTD.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 4% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, for the last several weeks showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. The last two weeks during the government shutdown showings were DOWN 5% and 3%, respectively.
  
  
• Listings UP 16% from August to September
  This is a significant increase from UP 1% in September 2024 as well as the typical average UP 0.3% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• September Listings DOWN 12% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-12%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Sep (21,784) are tracking almost exactly 2024 (21,595).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Sep (30,256) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Sep 2024 (27,676). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.55 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 35% of the total September listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 65% - little change from July and August. However, this is a significant departure from September 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.81 (43% Under Contract and 57% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged this year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (12% of Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 36% vs. September 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. September inventory was 1.91 mos, 36% higher than September 2024 inventory of 1.40 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 37% higher - 2,900 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when September inventory ranged from just 1.14 to 1.64 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.2% of Seller Asking in September. This is notably down from the 99.2% experienced in September 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into early fall. The current contract cancellation rate has ranged between 15 to 25% (today it's 16%). This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is TRENDING DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 40% of the 2,138 homes sold in September transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is similar to August. By contrast, 34% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, also similar to August. However, this is a significant difference between now and last year. In September 2024, 53% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 40% in September 2025, down 13 points.

• Fed September Meeting: RATE CUT to 4.00%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate 1/4 point to 4.00% on September 17. The next meeting is scheduled for October 29. The futures market is presently pricing a 98% chance of another 1/4 point rate cut. Like the September cut, the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) has likely priced in the expected cut in late October.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.9%, RISES 0.4% Aug to Sep
  Due to the government shutdown, the current September CPI data release has been delayed to October 24, nine days later than previously planned on October 15.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to Low 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down to the low-6 range. Rates are at the low end of a 6 to 7.25% trading range seen for almost three years. Rates have seen the low 6's in January 2023, October 2024, and now. VA/FHA rates broke the 5 barrier (now below 5.75%). Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and Jumbo rates are running together in the 6.125% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

August Highlights:

• KEY METRICS CONFIRM A MORE BALANCED MARKET
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Late Summer
  The recent upward trend in inventory over the last several months appears to be stabilizing. In our largest sub-market, Fairfax County, inventory has traded in a relatively tight range of 1.68 to 1.73 months. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly (35%) from last year. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from August 2024 - Active Listings (UP 39%), Days on Market (UP 47%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 120bp). Home prices appear to be plateauing in 2025 year-over-year with clear deceleration month-to-month. Prince William Co is leading this deceleration, opening the year in January UP 8% but only UP 1% by August (YTD). Prince William Co could be the first major sub-market turning negative YTD before year-end.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 4% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, for the last several weeks showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. August 2025 showings were UP 7% compared to August 2024. Currently, showings are seasonally spiking in the first two weeks of September as typical after Labor Day. This spark of buying usually carries into mid-October. September showings are currently tracking better than 2024 primarily due to the recent fall in interest rates.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 9% from July to August
  This is consistent with DOWN 8% in August 2024 as well as the typical average DOWN 8% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• August Listings DOWN 21% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-21%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Aug (19,436) are tracking almost exactly 2024 (19,397).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Aug (26,794) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Aug 2024 (24,654). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.58 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 37% of the total August listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 63% - no change from July. However, this is a significant departure from August 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.74 (43% Under Contract and 57% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for August speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (11% of Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 38% vs. August 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. August inventory was 1.78 mos, 38% higher than August 2024 inventory of 1.29 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 36% higher - 2,600 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when August inventory ranged from just 0.93 to 1.29 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.5% of Seller Asking in August. This is notably down from the 99.7% experienced in August 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into late summer. The current contract cancellation rate has ranged between 15 to 25% (today it's 16%). This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is TRENDING DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues to slow with 44% of the 2,568 homes sold in August transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is down 3 pts from 47% in July. By contrast, 32% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 27% in July. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In August 2024, 56% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 44% in August 2025, down 12 points.

• Fed July Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on July 30 and decided on no rate cut. There was no meeting scheduled in August. The next meeting is scheduled later this week on September 17. The futures market is presently pricing a 100% chance of a rate cut (96% chance of a 1/4 point, 4% chance of a 1/2 point). Short of a 1/2 point cut, mortgage rates should not be impacted as the bond market controls interest rates. Any Fed move is likely already priced into the market.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.9%, RISES 0.4% July to August
  As reported last week, inflation increased in August to 2.9% year-to-year slightly rising over July (2.7%). Inflation month-to-month increased from 0.2 to 0.4%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" remained the same 3.1% as July. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to Low 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down to the low-6 range. Rates are at the low end of a 6 to 7.25% trading range seen for almost three years. Rates have seen the low 6's in January 2023, October 2024, and now. VA/FHA rates broke the 5 barrier (now below 5.75%). Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and Jumbo rates are running together in the 6.125% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

July Highlights:

• KEY MARKET METRICS SHIFT TOWARD BUYERS; BECOMING LESS SELLER-AVANTAGED
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory TRENDS HIGHER into Summer
  Rising inventory continues to shift the market to a more balanced position between buyers and sellers, something not seen in the last six years. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from July 2024 - Active Listings (UP 47%), Days on Market (UP 33%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 180bp). Despite rising inventory, home prices are generally holding at relative highs. The median price in our largest sub-market Fairfax County is within 2.8% of its all-time high reached in May ($787,000). However, home prices in Northern Virginia may be showing signs of plateauing as price internals are decelerating. The price increase for YTD 2025 compared to 2024 has been more than halved in the first seven months of the year. Prices opened in January UP 11.2% but have declined each subsequent month to UP 4.4% in July. This market behavior, and more, is further explained below.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 5% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, for the last several weeks showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. July 2025 showings were UP 7% compared to July 2024. In August, buyer showings are seasonally trending down against vacations and schools beginning session. Come Labor Day (September 1), the market experiences a seasonal 30%+ spike in showings carrying higher activity into mid-October.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 2% from June to July
  This is consistent with DOWN 4% in July 2024 and a departure from the typical average DOWN 13% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• July Listings DOWN 22% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-22%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Jul (16,798) are tracking almost exactly 2024 (16,807).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Jul (23,676) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Jul 2024 (21,725). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.57 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 37% of the total July listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 63%. This is a significant departure from July 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.85 (46% Under Contract and 54% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for July speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (12% of Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 43% vs. July 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. July inventory was 1.83 mos, 43% higher than July 2024 inventory of 1.28 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 32% higher - 2,400 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when July inventory ranged from just 0.89 to 1.37 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.7% of Seller Asking in July. This is down significantly from the 100.5% experienced in July 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into summer. The current contract cancellation rate has ranged between 15 to 25% (today it's 20%). This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is TRENDING DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract is slowing with 47% of the 2,754 homes sold in July transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is down 6 pts from 53% in June. By contrast, 27% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 20% in June. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In July 2024, 61% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 47% in July 2025, down 14 points.

• Fed July Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on July 30 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled September 17. The futures market is presently pricing a 96% chance of a 1/4 point rate cut at the September meeting. The bond market controls interest rates. Any Fed move will likely already be priced into the market.
  
  
• Headline Inflation STEADY at 2.7%, RISES 0.2% June to July
  As reported today, inflation remained steady in July at 2.7% year-to-year same as June. Inflation month-to-month fell from 0.3 to 0.2%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" increased somewhat from 2.9% in June to 3.1% in July. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to 6.5%
  Mortgage rates continue to slowly decline to the mid-6 range with VA/FHA rates closing in on the high 5's. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and Jumbo rates are running together in the 6.5% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

June Highlights:

• KEY MARKET METRICS SHIFT TOWARD BUYERS; BECOMING LESS SELLER-AVANTAGED
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory TRENDS HIGHER into Summer
  Rising inventory continues to shift the market to a more balanced position between buyers and sellers, something not seen in the last six years. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from the 5-year average - Active Listings (UP 51%), Days on Market (UP 46%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 200bp). Despite rising inventory, home prices are holding at relative highs. The median price in our largest sub-market Fairfax County is within 2.5% of its all-time high reached in May ($787,000). Loudoun County is within 1% of its all-time high reached in March ($810,000). Prince William County is within 5% of its all-time high reached in June 2024 ($635,000). However, home prices in Northern Virginia may be showing signs of plateauing as price internals are decelerating. The price increase for YTD 2025 compared to 2024 has been more than halved in the first six months of the year. Prices opened in January UP 11.2% but have declined each subsequent month since to now UP 4.5% by June. This market behavior, and more, is further explained below.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 7% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, for the last several weeks showings have been equal to or higher than 2024. The market recently passed its usual Memorial Day holiday inflection point where buyer showings generally top and begin the downtrend to year-end.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 15% from May to June
  This is consistent with DOWN 13% in June 2024 and a departure from the typical average DOWN 8% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• June Listings DOWN 31% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-31%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Jun (13,948) are tracking almost exactly 2024 (13,944).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Jun (20,123) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Jun 2024 (18,508). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.67 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 40% of the total June listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 60%. This is a significant departure from June 2024 when the contract ratio was 1.00 (50% Under Contract and 50% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio is uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for June and speaks to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (12% of Active listings). The importance of correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 78% vs. June 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. June inventory was 1.8 mos, 78% higher than June 2024 inventory of 1.01 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 40% higher - 3,000+ listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when June inventory ranged from a slim 0.83 to 1.03 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.3% of Seller Asking in June. This is down significantly from the 101.2% experienced in June 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into summer. The current contract cancellation rate has ranged between 15 to 25% (today it's 22.5%). This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is TRENDING DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract is slowing with 53% of the 3,023 homes sold in June transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is down 10 pts from 63% in May. By contrast, 20% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 15% in May. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In June 2024, 69% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 53% in June 2025, down 16 points.

• Fed June Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on June 18 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled July 30. The futures market is presently pricing a 95% chance of no rate cut at the July meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.7%, RISES 0.3% May to June
  As reported today, inflation increased from May 2.4% to June 2.7% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month increased from 0.1 to 0.3%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" increased slightly from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June, in range of its lowest levels since March 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at 6.5 to 6.75%
  Mortgage rates continue to trade in the 6.5 to 7% range for much of 2025. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA rates are currently running about 1/2 point lower at 6.125%. Conforming and Jumbo rates are running together in the 6.5% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

May Highlights:

• AN IMPORTANT MARKET SHIFT IS UNDERWAY
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory is RISING this Spring
  Despite rising inventory, the median home price in Fairfax County reached an all-time high in May ($787,000) breaking the former high ($780,000) reached in June 2024. However, home prices in Northern Virginia may be showing signs of plateauing as price internals are decelerating. The price increase for YTD 2025 compared to 2024 has been more than halved in the first five months of the year. Prices opened in January UP 11.2% but have deflated to UP 5% by May. The growing Active Weekly Listings trend that began in March 2024 has caused marked changes in inventory rising 50% over last year levels. This is further explained a few paragraphs below.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 8% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) continued to hit weekly highs in May tracking seasonal expectations. While showings for the year are DOWN 8.3% compared to 2024, May showings were UP 2.3% over May 2024. The market just passed its usual Memorial Day holiday inflection point where buyer showings generally top and begin the downtrend to year-end.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 5% from April to May
  This is a moderate departure from the UP 1% in May 2024 and typical average UP 1% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• May Listings DOWN 21% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-21%). Notably, with the 5-year average now excluding 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 20 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-May (10,875) are DOWN 1% compared to last year (11,038).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-May (16,654) are UP 10% compared to Jan-May 2024 (15,140). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.70 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 41% of the total May listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 59%. This is a significant departure from May 2024 when the contract ratio was 1.00 (50% Under Contract and 50% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio is uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for May and speaks to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (14% of Active listings). The importance of correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 63% vs. May 2024
  Inventory is finally rising in Northern Virginia. May inventory was 1.55 mos, 63% higher than May 2024 inventory of 0.95 mos. For several months, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 46% higher - 3,000+ listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when May inventory ranged from a slim 0.73 to 1.22 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.1% of Seller Asking in May. This is down significantly from the 102.3% experienced in May 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring. The current contract cancellation rate has increased to 16%. This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is Swift; But DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract is generally fast with 63% of the 2,955 homes sold in May transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). By contrast, 15% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market. However, there is a significant difference between now and last year. In May 2024, 76% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 63% in May 2025, down 13 points.

• Fed May Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on May 7 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled tomorrow, June 18. The futures market is presently pricing a 99% chance of no rate cut at tomorrow's meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.4%, FALLS 0.1% Apr to May
  As reported last week, inflation rose slightly from April 2.3% to May 2.4% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month declined from 0.2 to 0.1%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" held steady at 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to Upper 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trade in the 6.75 to 7% range for much of 2025. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA rates are running about 1/2 point lower at 6.375%. Conforming rates are running about 1/4 point lower than the upper 6's jumbo rates (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

April Highlights:

• AN IMPORTANT MARKET SHIFT IS UNDERWAY
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory is RISING this Spring
  Home prices in Northern Virginia may be showing signs of plateauing. While prices in each major sub-market county are near all-time highs, price internals are showing signs of deflation. The price increase for YTD 2025 compared to 2024 has been halved in the first four months of the year. Prices opened in January UP 11.2% but have deflated to UP 6% by April. The growing Active Weekly Listings trend that began in March 2024 has caused marked changes in inventory is beginning to impact prices. This is further explained a few paragraphs below.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 8% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) continue to hit weekly highs and trend up following seasonal expectations. Overall, Buyer showings are down 8% compared to 2024 almost repeating the 7% decline experienced in 2024 compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings UP 6% from March to April
  This is on pace with the UP 7% in Apr 2024 but down from the typical average UP 11% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• April Listings DOWN 19% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-19%). Notably, with the 5-year average now excluding 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 20 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Apr (7,867) are DOWN 1% compared to last year (7,950).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up 15% in 2024. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Apr (12,536) are UP 11% compared to Jan-Apr 2024 (11,339). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.72 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 42% of the total April listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 58%. This is a significant departure from April 2024 when the contract ratio was 1.21 (58% Under Contract and 42% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio is uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for April and speaks to the higher inventory.
  

• Inventory is Accelerating Higher - RISES to 1.85 mos
  Inventory appears to be finally rising in Northern Virginia. Inventory in April was 1.85 mos, 103% higher than April 2024 inventory of 0.91 mos. For several months, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 55% higher - 3,000+ listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when April inventory ranged from a slim 0.70 to 1.19 mos. April's 1.85 mos. inventory is the highest single month since January 2018 (last 88 months), and the highest April level in 8 years since 2017.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio Relaxes with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.7% of Seller Asking in April - same as last month. However, this lags the 102.1% experienced in April 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, rising Inventory, and the more balanced market seen this spring. The current contract cancellation rate is 11% as usual this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Spikes into Spring
  Speed to contract continues to rise into spring with 68% of the 2,713 homes sold in April transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is up 2 points from the 66% seen in March. By contrast, 14% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market (down from 19% last month). Cash transactions represented 16% of the purchases in April. 

• Fed May Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on May 7 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled June 18. The futures market is presently pricing a 92% chance of no rate cut at the June meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.3%, RISES 0.2% Mar to Apr
  As reported yesterday, inflation dropped from March 2.4% to April 2.3% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month increased 0.2%. Both numbers ran slightly better than expectations. "Core Inflation" held steady at 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to Upper 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to be volatile. Rates fell to the lowest levels in about six months, only to rebound sharply to the 7% area, and have relaxed somewhat in recent weeks. This recent volatility is attributed to stock market and tariff news. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA rates are running about 1/2 point lower at 6.375%. Conforming rates are running about 1/4 point lower than the upper 6's jumbo rates (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

March Highlights:

• LOUDOUN CO PRICES HIT ALL-TIME HIGH
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 6.9% vs. Mar 2024
  The median price of a Northern Virginia home increased 6.9% in March 2025 compared to March 2024. It typically takes a full Q1 to get a sense of how prices will trend for the year. Through March, the average home price in Northern Virginia is up 7.4%. Most notably, Loudoun County reached an all-time median price high in March ($810,000). Fairfax County is still 3% below its all-time high set last June ($780,000).
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 10% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) continue to hit weekly highs and trend up following seasonal expectations. Overall, Buyer showings are down 10% compared to 2024 almost repeating the 7% decline experienced in 2024 compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings UP 49% from February to March
  This is up sharply from the UP 21% in Feb 2024 but on pace with the typical average UP 42% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• March Listings DOWN 15% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-15%). Notably, with the 5-year average now excluding 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 20 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Mar (5,098) are DOWN 2.2% compared to last year (5,213).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up 15% in 2024. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Mar (8,185) are UP 10% compared to Jan-Mar 2024 (7,435). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 0.89 (shift toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 47% of the total March listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 53% - a 4 point improvement toward sellers since February. Contract ratios are trending toward a seller-advantaged time of year. 
  

• Inventory is Finally Moving Higher - RISES to 1.45 mos
  Inventory appears to be finally rising in Northern Virginia. Inventory in March was 1.45 mos, 42% higher than February 2024 inventory of 1.02 mos. For several months, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 28%). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when March inventory ranged from a slim 0.61 to 1.02 mos. This is by far the highest March inventory (1.45 mos) since 2018/19 when it was 1.64 and 1.40 mos, respectively.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio Relaxes with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.7% of Seller Asking in March. While up 1 point from the 99.7% in February, March 2025 lagged the 101.8% experienced in March 2024. The Sold-to-List Price ratio is trending up as typically seen in the approaching spring market, but buying sentiment is becoming more balanced due to higher inventory. The current contract cancellation rate is 12%.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Spikes into Spring
  Speed to contract continues to rise into spring with 66% of the 2,011 homes sold in March transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is up 6 points from the 60% seen in February. By contrast, 19% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market (down from 24% last month). Cash transactions represented 18% of the purchases in March. 

• Fed Mar Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on March 19 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled May 7. The futures market is presently pricing an 80% chance of no rate cut at the May meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.4%, FALLS 0.1% Feb to Mar
  As reported last week, inflation dropped from February 2.8% to March 2.4% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also dropped from 0.2% to negative 0.1%. "Core Inflation" dropped to 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES to 7%
  Mortgage rates have experienced a volatile few weeks. Rates fell to their lowest levels in about six months, only to rebound sharply to the 7% area. This recent volatility is attributed to stock market and tariff news. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA rates are running about 3/8-point lower at 6.675%. Conforming rates are running about 1/8-point lower than the 7% jumbo rates (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

February Highlights:

• PRICES RISE, DESPITE INVENTORY UP 12% vs FEB 2024
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 6.3% vs. Feb 2024
  The median price of a Northern Virginia home increased 6.3% in February 2025 compared to February 2024. It typically takes a full Q1 to get a sense of how prices will trend for the year. For example, the average price was up 11.6% January to January but has compressed this month to up 7.2% February to February.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 11% in 2025
  Overall, Buyer showings (demand) were down 7% in 2024 compared to 2023. This trend has continued into 2025. While current-year showings are at 2025 highs, they are down 11% compared to 2024.
  
  
• Listings UP 24% from January to February
  This is up sharply from the UP 14% in Feb 2024 but on pace with the typical average UP 23% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• February Listings DOWN 19% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-19%). Notably, with the 5-year average now excluding 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 15 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Feb (3,038) are DOWN 2.5% compared to last year (3,117).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up 15% in 2024. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. New Listings in Jan-Feb (3,835) were DOWN 2% compared to Jan-Feb 2024 (3,912). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.75 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 43% of the total February listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 57% - the same ratio as January. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year but this will likely begin to change to seller-advantaged as we head into spring 2025. 
  

• Is Inventory Finally Moving Higher? RISES to 1.79 mos
  Inventory rose sharply month-to-month from 1.02 mos in January to 1.79 mos in February. This is 12% higher than February 2024 inventory of 1.46 mos. Separate, but associated, is a concerning trend in Weekly Active Listings for the entire Washington DC metro area. In the past 5 years, the current year Weekly Active Listings have been lower than the previous year underscoring persistent low inventory. However, in March 2024 this trend changed with spreads 20 to 30% more Weekly Active Listings in 2024 compared to 2023. Currently, Weekly Active Listings in the entire Washington DC metro area are 33% higher than last year. While some of this is attributed to Northern Virginia, most of these excess listings are located in DC, Prince George's and Montgomery counties. 
  
  
• Buyers Continue Purchasing Strength in Feb 2025
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.7% of Seller Asking in February just like Feb 2024. The Sold-to-List Price ratio is trending up as typically seen in the approaching spring market. Likewise, buyer contingencies begin to trend away from contracts as evidenced by contract cancellation rates falling. The current cancellation rate is 10% and will likely range between a seller-advantaged 6 to 12% in the coming months.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Spikes as Spring Nears
  Speed to contract spiked 17 points from last month's 43% to 60% in February. Of the 1,570 homes sold in February, 60% transacted in the fastest range (0 to 10 days) with 24% exceeding 30+ days on market (down from 37% last month). Cash transactions represented 19% of the purchases in February. 

• Fed Jan Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on January 29 with no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled tomorrow, March 19. The futures market is presently pricing a 99% chance of no rate cut at tomorrow's meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.8%, RISES 0.2% Jan to Feb
  As reported last Wednesday, inflation dropped from January 3.0% to February 2.8% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also dropped from 0.5 to 0.2%. "Core Inflation" dropped to 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS into Mid 6's
  Mortgage rates have further relaxed into the mid 6's. The further near 0.5 point decline in the last month is mainly attributed to a falling stock market and inflation continuing to cool. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA and Conforming rates are running in the 6.13 to 6.38% range with jumbo loans in the 6.5% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

January Highlights:

• MEDIAN PRICE BEGINS THE YEAR UP 6%
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 5.7% vs. Jan 2024
  The median price of a Northern Virginia home increased 5.7% in January 2025 compared to January 2024. It typically takes a full Q1 to get a sense of how prices will trend for the year. For example, the average price is up 11.6% January to January. That 6 points spread between median and average will likely tighten toward the median price as each month's cumulative data is calculated.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN SOMEWHAT in 2025
  Overall, Buyer showings (demand) were down 7% in 2024 compared to 2023. While it's just January, this trend has continued somewhat in 2025. Depending on the week in 2025, showings have been equal to down 14% compared to 2024.
  
  
• Listings UP 69% from December to January
  This almost equaled the UP 70% in Jan 2024 and bettered the typical average UP 59% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• January Listings DOWN 24% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-24%). With the 5-year average losing 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 10 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in January (1,429) outpaced last year by 5.2% (1,359).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up 15% in 2024. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. New Listings in January were DOWN 4% compared to January 2024. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.75 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 43% of the total January listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 57% - largely the same as December. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year but this will likely begin to change to seller-advantaged as we head into spring 2025. 
  

• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.02 months
  Inventory held relatively steady from 1.08 mos in December and is tracking similar to this time last year (1 mo in Jan 2024).
  
  
• Buyers Continue Purchasing Strength in Jan 2025
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.0% of Seller Asking in January just like Jan 2024. The relatively lower Sold-to-List Price ratio speaks to buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double now compared to typical spring behavior (now 12%).
  
  
• Speed to Contract Continues Winter Slower Pace
  Similar to last month, 43% of the 1,429 homes sold in January transacted in the fastest range (0 to 10 days) with 37% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represented 21% of the purchases in January. 

• Fed Jan Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on January 29 with no rate cut. The futures market is presently showing a 96% chance of no rate cut at the next meeting scheduled on March 19. The Fed lowering rates has done materially nothing to influence mortgage rates which have increased 1 point since September.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.0%, RISES 0.5% Dec to Jan
  As reported last Wednesday, inflation increased from December 2.9% to January 3.0% year-to-year. This is the first move back into the 3's after seven months in the upper 2's. Inflation month-to-month also increased from 0.4 to 0.5%, a level not seen since March 2024. Some attribute the month-to-month change to companies increasing prices as usually done first of the year. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS into Upper 6's
  Mortgage rates have relaxed somewhat back into the upper 6's. Since September, rates increased to near relative highs above 7% on economic news, despite 1 point of cuts by the Fed. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the 6.25 to 6.50% range with jumbo loans in the 6.75% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

December Highlights:

• PRICES CLOSE STRONG IN 2024 - UP 8.1%
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 44% Since 2019
  Northern Virginia prices experienced a strong year in 2024 with the average price increasing from $733,570 to 793,000 (up 8.1%). This is an acceleration from the 3.8% experienced in 2023. All eleven (11) sub-markets in Northern Virginia increased in value. The average price of a detached home closed at $1,124,200 with the average price of a townhouse at $710,500 and condo at $459,400. To put things into perspective, Fairfax County has averaged a 5.1% annual increase in home prices since 1975. The 44% increase in the last 5 years moderately outpaced the 28% average. More to the point, those worried about a market collapse, the 44% substantially lags the 5 years leading up to the 2006 market top when 2001-06 prices increased 95%.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 7% in 2024
  Overall, Buyer showings (demand) were down 7% compared to 2023. Showings lagged by 15% for much of the year, but spiked over 2023 levels to close the year from September to December as the Federal Reserve began reducing the fed funds rate.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 31% from November to December
  This equaled the typical average DOWN 31% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• December Listings DOWN 35% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-35%). Northern Virginia homes sold in 2024 (28,296) outpaced last year by 3.8% (27,271).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. However, what many people don't realize is more and more transactions are occurring against relatively higher interest rates. This is decreasing the number of low-interest-rate mortgages held by owners. For example, in Q1 2022 over 85% of the outstanding mortgages were under 4.5%. As of Q3 2024, this has fallen to 73% and continues to decline. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.78 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 44% of the total December listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 56%. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year but this will begin to change to seller-advantaged as we head into early 2025. 
  

• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.08 months
  Inventory held relatively steady from 1.01 mos in November and is tracking similar to this time last year (1 mo in Dec 2023).
  
  
• Buyers Continue Purchasing Strength in Late 2024
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.0% of Seller Asking in December with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 15%).
  
  
• Speed to Contract Slows into Year-End
  Similar to last year, 62% of homes YTD have sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). However, speed to contract has slowed from the 70% range experienced in the faster months as days on market typically grow from summer to end of year. For example, just 44% of the 2,073 homes sold in December transacted in the fastest range with 31% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represent 18% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year. 

• Fed Dec Meeting: RATE CUT 0.25 to 4.25%
  The Fed cut the fed funds rate 0.25 point as widely expected during the December 18 meeting. The Fed has now lowered the fed funds rate by 1 full point since September. The futures market is presently showing a 97% chance of no additional rate cut at the next meeting scheduled on January 29. The Fed lowering rates has done nothing to influence mortgage rates which have increased 1 point since September.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.9%, RISES 0.4% Nov to Dec
  As reported this morning and in-line with expectations, inflation increased from November 2.7% to December 2.9% year-to-year. This is the sixth consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months.  Inflation month-to-month also increased from 0.3 to 0.4%, a level not seen since April 2024. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES to 7%
  Mortgage rates reached a relative low in mid-September trading in the 5's which had not been seen since January 2023. Since September, rates increased 1 point to a relatively high level on economic news, despite 1 point of cuts by the Fed. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the 6.375 to 6.75% range with jumbo loans in the low 7% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).

November Highlights:

• PRICES BEGIN TO TIGHTEN FOR POSSIBLE SPRING MOVE?
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 1.5%
  Northern Virginia prices increased in November (contracts written in October). The Oct-Nov price move was consistent with the last 6 years averaging UP 1.3%. The YTD average price in Northern Virginia is UP 8.3% compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal decline in up markets, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the Jan through May/Jun peak. As shown in the graph below, the market has given back 50% of the 2024 gains.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Dive to 2024 Lows
  Buyer showings (demand) are diving to 2024 lows as the market enters the November-December holiday period. However, for the approximately 2,500 active listings in Northern Virginia, showings have been tracking 15% higher than last year since the Fed began reducing rates.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 35% from October to November
  This is on pace with the typical average DOWN 31% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• November Listings DOWN 32% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-32%). Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Nov 2024 (26,120) are outpacing last year by 2.3% (25,539).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 26,613 New Listings in Jan-Nov 2024 compared to 26,597 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.78 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 44% of the total November listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 56%. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory FALLS to 1.01 months
  Consistent with an increase in prices and the Sold-to-List Price Ratio, the inventory level fell from 1.41 mos in October and is tracking somewhat lower compared to this time last year (1.19 mos in Nov 2023).
  
  
• Buyers Continue Purchasing Strength in Fall
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.0% of Seller Asking in November with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 14%).
  
  
• Speed to Contract Slows in Fall
  Similar to last year, 62% of homes YTD have sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). However, speed to contract has slowed from the 70% range experienced in the faster months as days on market typically grow in summer and fall months. For example, just 48% of the 1,992 homes sold in November transacted in the fastest range with 26% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represent 18% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year. 

• Fed Nov Meeting: RATE CUT 0.25 to 4.50%
  The Fed cut the fed funds rate 0.25 point as widely expected during the November 7 meeting. The Fed has now lowered the fed funds rate by 0.75% since September. The futures market is presently showing a 98% chance of an additional 0.25 point rate cut at the next meeting scheduled on December 18.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.7%, RISES 0.3% Oct to Nov
  As reported yesterday and in-line with expectations, inflation increased slightly from October 2.6% to November 2.7% year-to-year. This is the fifth consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY in Low/Mid 6's
  Mortgage rates reached a relative low in mid-September trading in the 5's which had not been seen since January 2023. Since September, rates increased 1% on economic news, despite a falling fed funds rate. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the 6 to 6.5% range with jumbo loans in the high 6's (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).

October Highlights:

• PRICES CONTINUE TYPICAL SEASONAL DOWNTREND
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices DOWN 2.2%
  Northern Virginia prices fell in October (contracts written in September). The Sep-Oct price move was somewhat divergent from the last 6 years averaging UP 0.3%. The YTD average price in Northern Virginia is UP 8.3% compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal decline in up markets, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the Jan through May/Jun peak. As shown in the graph below, the market has given back 59% of the 2024 gains.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Spike after Labor Day
  Buyer showings (demand) spiked 30% off the August lows reclaiming the July showing highs. The September spike is normal after Labor Day renewing sales activity in September and October just before the November and December holiday decline. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. There has been a single-digit uptick in buyer showings since the Fed reduced rates on September 18.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 11% from September to October
  This is on pace with the typical average DOWN 14% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• October Listings DOWN 32% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-32%). Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Oct 2024 (24,067) is outpacing last year by 1.7% (23,659).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 25,152 New Listings in Jan-Oct 2024 compared to 25,138 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.78 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 44% of the total October listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 56%. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory RISES to 1.41 months
  Inventory level up from 1.26 mos in September but equals the level this time last year (1.41 mos in Oct 2023).
  
  
• Buyers Continue Purchasing Strength in Fall
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.6% of Seller Asking in October with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 16%). Notably for buyers, October offers the HIGHEST NUMBER of ACTIVE LISTINGS compared to any other month.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Slows in Fall
  Similar to last year, 63% of homes have sold in the fastest range YTD (0 to 10 days). However, speed to contract has slowed from the 70% range experienced in the faster months as days on market typically grow in summer and fall months. For example, just 53% of the 2,387 homes sold in October transacted in the fastest range with 23% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represent 18% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year. 

• Fed Nov Meeting: RATE CUT 0.25 to 4.50%
  The Fed cut the fed funds rate 0.25 point as widely expected during the November 7 meeting. The Fed has now lowered the fed funds rate by 0.75% since September. However, mortgage rates have increased 1 full point at the same time. This can be confusing to consumers. We should remember the fed funds rate is an ultra short-term rate that controls the overnight borrowing rate between banks. Mortgage rates span a much longer 30-year duration. More importantly, these long-term rates are determined by the bond market which considers many other factors like inflation and the strength of the economy. While the fed funds rate can "influence" the bond market, it does not "control" the bond market. The fed funds rate and mortgage rates are loosely connected as easily seen the last few months.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 2.6%, STEADY 0.2% Sep to Oct
  As reported last week, inflation increased from September 2.4% to October 2.6% year-to-year. This is the fourth consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. However, it's the first time in 7 months that inflation has increased from the previous month. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES to Low/Mid 6's
  Mortgage rates reached a relative low in mid-September trading in the 5's which had not been seen since January 2023. Since September, rates increased 1% on economic news, despite a falling fed funds rate. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the 6 to 6.5% range with jumbo loans about 7% (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).

September Highlights:

• PRICES CONTINUE TYPICAL SEASONAL DOWNTREND
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices DOWN 1.7%
  Northern Virginia prices fell in September (contracts written in August). The Aug-Sep price move was consistent with the last 6 years averaging DOWN 3%. The YTD average price in Northern Virginia is UP 8.2% compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal decline, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the Jan through May/Jun peak. As shown in the graph below, the market has given back 45% of the 2024 gains.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Spike after Labor Day
  Buyer showings (demand) spiked 30% off the August lows reclaiming the July showing highs. The September spike is normal after Labor Day renewing sales activity in September and October just before the November and December holiday decline. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. There has been a single-digit uptick in buyer showings since the Fed reduced rates on September 18.
  
  
• Listings UP 1% from August to September
  This is on pace with the typical average UP 1.5% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• September Listings DOWN 32% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-32%). Remarkably, the number of Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Sep 2024 (21,595) is almost exactly the same as last year (21,506).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 22,961 New Listings in Jan-Sep 2024 compared to 22,951 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.76 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 43% of the total September listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 57%. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory RISES to 1.26 months
  Inventory level up from 1.11 mos in August and up somewhat from this time last year (1.10 mos in Sep 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer to Fall Pivot is Underway
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.2% of Seller Asking in September with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 16%). Notably for buyers, October offers the HIGHEST NUMBER of ACTIVE LISTINGS compared to any other month.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Slows in Summer & Fall
  Similar to last year, 64% of homes have sold in the fastest range YTD (0 to 10 days). Speed to contract has slowed from the 70% range experienced in the faster months as days on market typically grow in summer and fall months. For example, just 53% of the 2,138 homes sold in September transacted in the fastest range with 25% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represent 18% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year. 

• Fed Sep Meeting: RATES CUT 0.50 to 4.75%
  The Fed cut rates 0.50 point as widely expected during the September 18 meeting. Mortgage rates actually increased 0.10% after the Fed announcement since Fed action is largely priced into rates several weeks ahead of policy moves. The futures market is currently anticipating an 85% chance for an additional 0.25% cut at the next meeting scheduled November 7.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.4%, STEADY 0.2% Aug to Sep
  As reported last week, inflation continued to hold steady from August 2.5% to September 2.4% year-to-year. This is the third consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES 0.50% to Low 6's
  Mortgage rates reached a relative low in mid-September trading in the 5's which had not been seen since January 2023. Since September, rates increased 0.50% on economic news. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the higher 5's with jumbo loans in mid 6's (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).

August Highlights:

• PRICES UP 7.8% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices STEADY +0.3%
  Northern Virginia prices held steady in August (contracts written in July). The July-Aug price move (+0.3%) was consistent with the last 6 years averaging DOWN 1%. The Jan-Aug YTD average price in Northern Virginia fell 90bp from 8.7 to 7.8% compared to the previous month's Jan-Jul YTD number. From July to December, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the January through the May/June peak.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Spike after Labor Day
  Buyer showings (demand) spiked 30% off the August lows reclaiming the July showing highs. The September spike is normal after Labor Day renewing sales activity in September and October just before the November and December holiday decline. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 8% from July to August
  This is on pace with the typical average DOWN 9% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• August Listings DOWN 31% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-31%). Remarkably, the number of Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Aug (19,397) is almost exactly the same as last year (19,407).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 20,512 New Listings in Jan-Aug 2024 compared to 20,631 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.74 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 42% of the total August listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 58%.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.11 month
  Inventory level on pace with last year (1.08 mos in Aug 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending September 8, there is a 29 pts spread between Listings (supply) and Showings (demand) benefiting buyers. Seller listings are equal to annual highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 29%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers have been navigating with notably less competition than earlier in the year. Buyer contract prices averaged 99.2% of Seller Asking in August with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 15%).
  
  
• Despite Lower Demand, Homes Still Selling Fast
  Last year, 65% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). Homes are selling slightly faster this year with 66% traded in the fastest range. Cash transactions represent 17% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year.
  
  
• Fed July Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting. However, the long-awaited September 18 meeting is scheduled this week when the Fed is expected to begin reducing rates. The futures market is presently showing a 100% chance of a rate cut. The market is split 50/50 on whether it will be a minimum 0.25% cut, or a more aggressive 0.50%.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.5%, RISES 0.2% Jul to Aug
  As reported last week, inflation continued to fall as anticipated from July's 2.9% to 2.5% year-to-year. This is the second consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. The looming Fed rate cut is a departure from their long-held guidance they wanted to see 2% inflation for several months before reducing.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS; Now in the 5's
  Mortgage rates continued to advance their decline in recent weeks breaking through the 5's. In part, due to the strengthening Fed position about a September rate cut, but also because investors moved to treasuries during declining stock prices. Rates have fallen 1+ point in the last two months to levels not seen since February 2023. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the mid to low 5's with jumbo loans in mid 6's (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).

July Highlights:

• SEASONAL PRICE DECLINE IS UNDERWAY
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices DOWN 5.5%
  Northern Virginia prices fall in July (contracts written in June). All major sub-markets participated in the decline with Prince William (-6.8%) and Fairfax (-5.9%) leading. The monthly decline pushed the average price YTD down 50bp in Northern Virginia from 9.2 to 8.7%.
  
  
• Buyers are Operating with More Conviction in 2024
  Currently in August, buyer showings (demand) have seasonally fallen to near January lows. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. Despite fewer showings, home units sold are nearly the same as 2023 while prices are up 9% YTD compared to just 1% this time last year. Essentially, this means the market is doing more (prices up) with relatively fewer showings (demand). This indicates buyers are purchasing with more conviction this year, despite the higher interest rate environment compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 4% from June to July
  This is notably better than the typical average DOWN 15% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• July Listings DOWN 49% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-49%). The number of homes sold Jan-Jul (16,807) is about the same as last year (16,745).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not happened with just 18,082 New Listings in Jan-Jul 2024 compared to 18,151 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.93 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 48% of the listing pool compared to available and Active Listings at 52%.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.06 month
  Inventory level compares to last year (0.79 mos in Jul 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending August 11, there is a 20 pts spread between Listings (supply) and Showings (demand) benefiting buyers. Seller listings are 22% below the 2024 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 42%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers can now navigate with notably less competition than earlier in the year. Consistent with reduced demand, escalated contract prices are waning, home inspection and appraisal contingencies are returning as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 15%).
  
  
• Despite Lower Demand, Homes Still Selling Fast
  Last year, 65% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). Homes are selling slightly faster this year with 67% traded in the fastest range. Cash transactions represent 17% of the purchases.
  
  
• Fed July Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell left the door open to a rate cut at the next meeting on September 18 noting "inflation has eased substantially the last year". Presently, the futures market is showing a 100% chance of a September rate cut. The market is nearly even on a 0.25% cut (55% chance) or 0.50% cut (45% chance).
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.9%, RISES 0.2% Jun to Jul
  As reported today, inflation fell slightly from June's 3.0% to 2.9% year-to-year finally breaking out of the 13 consecutive months stuck in the 3% range. However, month-to-month inflation rose to 0.2% reversing the promising negative 0.1% deflation from May to June. Overall, this is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate. It doesn't appear the Fed will follow their guidance with an expected rate cut in September.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS; Ranges in the Mid 6's
  Mortgage rates advanced their decline in recent weeks for two reasons. In part, due to the strengthening Fed position about a September rate cut. But more so, due to a sharp decline in stock prices after the unemployment rate rose sparking the threat of a possible recession. Rates fell to levels not seen since April 2023 before settling in the mid-6's. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running about 0.50% less in the low 6's.

June Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT NEW ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 3.6%
  Northern Virginia prices up strong in June. All major sub-markets including Fairfax, Arlington, and Prince William counties hit new all-time median price highs. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory (1 month) just like last year.
  
  
• Buyers are Operating with More Conviction in 2024
  Currently in July, buyer showings (demand) have seasonally fallen to near January lows. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. Despite these fewer showings, home units sold are nearly the same as 2023 while prices are up 9% YTD compared to just 1% this time last year. Essentially, this means the market is doing more (prices up) with relatively fewer showings (demand). Supply is the same, demand is lower, interest rates are about 0.5% higher, and prices are still up 9%. This indicates buyers are purchasing with more conviction this year and have become more accustomed to the higher interest rate environment compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 13% from May to June
  This is a notable departure from the average UP 2% during the last 6 years, pressuring inventory even more.
  
  
• June Listings DOWN 36% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-25%). The number of homes sold Jan-June (13,944) is DOWN 2% from last year (14,232).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not happened with just 15,449 New Listings in Jan-Jun 2024 compared to 15,589 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are DOWN 1% YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 1.01 (shift toward buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 0.94 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (0.89 mos in Jun 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending July 7, there is a 20 pts spread between Listings (supply) and Showings (demand) benefiting buyers. Seller listings are 17% below the 2024 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 37%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers can now navigate with notably less competition than earlier in the year. Consistent with reduced demand, escalation is waning, home inspection and appraisal contingencies are returning as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were a few months ago (now 15%).
  
  
• Despite Lower Demand, Homes Still Selling Fast
  Last year, 64% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). So far, 68% of the homes YTD have sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this year compared to 16%.
  
  
• Fed June Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the June 12 meeting, while downgrading its forecast. In March, the Fed projected 3 rate cuts in 2024. At the June meeting, they revised this downward to just one possible cut. June's improved inflation numbers released last week may help the Fed's rate cut outlook. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on July 31.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3%, FALLS 0.1% May to Jun
  As reported last week, inflation was in-line with expectations falling in June to 3% from May's 3.3% year-to-year, and registered a promising 0.1% decline month-to-month (first time since 2020). While inflation is making a bid at the long-awaited 2% range, it remains stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 13 consecutive months. The futures market responded with optimism hitting an 89% probability of a September rate cut (growing to 95%+ by November-December). This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS; Ranges in the 6's
  The national mortgage rate for a jumbo loan has relaxed from the late April high of 7.5% to the current 7%. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running about 0.50 to 0.75% less in the low to mid 6's. The Conventional Mortgage Rate has spent over 70% of the time during 2024 at 7% or higher.

May Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT NEW ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Fairfax & Prince William Counties UP 2.5%+
  Northern Virginia prices were flat in May, but major sub-markets including Fairfax and Prince William counties follow-through April highs and hit new all-time median price highs. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory (1 month) just like last year.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Peak; Seasonal Decline Begins
  Buyer Showings (demand) remain strong tracking 2023 numbers. However, the market has begun its seasonal decline in showings following the typical April/May peak. While still a seller-advantaged market, Memorial Day weekend ushered in the usual drop in showings (-20%) as summer begins in real estate. Showings will decline even further after the July 4 holiday (-15 to 20%). 
  
  
• Listings UP 1% from April to May
  This is consistent with the average UP 1% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• May Listings DOWN 25% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-25%). The number of homes sold Jan-May (11,038) is nearly the same as last year (10,999).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not happened with just 12,701 New Listings in Jan-May 2024 compared to 12,709 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS from 1.21 to 1.01 (shift toward buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.10 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (1.01 mos in May 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Produce More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up one point at 101% compared to 100% last May. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspection, financing, and appraisal. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations. Last month's 9.4% cancellation rate remained unchanged this week, but up from this year's low of 6.5% indicating the buyer-favored pivot and contingencies are re-entering the market. The cancellation rate will grow from here with seasonal ranges from 12 to 18% in the upcoming summer to fall months. 
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last May, 62% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This May, 68% of the homes sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this year compared to 16% last year.
  
  
• Buyers Will Begin to Confront LESS Competition
  Buyers have been confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. Buyers: Don't Despair. The market is beginning to adjust after the usual Memorial Day pivot that occurs each year when buyers begin to navigate the market with some leverage. Summer and fall months typically are the best time for buyers as pricing relaxes and contingencies re-enter the market.
  
  
• Fed June Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at last week's June 12 meeting, while downgrading its forecast. In March, the Fed projected 3 rate cuts in 2024. Last week it revised this downward to just one possible cut. Remember, it was just in January when so-called experts were even more bullish projecting 6 rate cuts this year!
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.3%, STEADY at 0.0% Apr to May
  As reported last week, inflation was in-line with expectations falling slightly in May from April's 3.4% year-to-year, and registered a promising no increase month-to-month. However, inflation remains stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 12 consecutive months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at 7%
  The national mortgage rate for a jumbo loan has relaxed from the late April high of 7.5% and May high of 7.25%. VA/FHA programs and Conforming rates are running about 0.50 to 0.75% lower. The Conventional Mortgage Rate has spent over 70% of the time during 2024 at 7% or higher.

April Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT NEW ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 3.7%
  Northern Virginia and major sub-markets including Fairfax and Loudoun counties follow-through March highs and hit new all-time price highs in April. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory, down 2% compared to last year.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Peak; Seasonal Decline Begins
  Buyer Showings (demand) remain strong tracking 2023 numbers. Strong buyer showings are especially seen in certain localities and well-conditioned homes. The market is about to begin its seasonal decline in showings following the typical April/May peak. While still a seller-advantaged market, sellers will see a steady decline in showings to year-end beginning Memorial Day weekend with the usual 25% drop.
  
  
• Listings UP 24% from March to April
  This is more than the typical UP 9% during the last 5 years. New Listings skewed somewhat higher in April compared to last year because some sellers avoided listing in March opting to wait until April after this year's late March Spring Break/Easter holiday week.
  
  
• April Listings DOWN 26% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages. The number of homes sold through April (7,950) is nearly the same as last year (7,918).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not panned out with just 9,558 New Listings in Jan-Apr 2024 compared to 9,738 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are DOWN 2% YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio UP from 1.08 to 1.21 (highly seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.06 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (1.05 mos in April 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Produce More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 101% compared to 99% last April. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations. Last month's 6.5% cancellation rate increased to 9.4% this week, indicating buyer contingencies are re-entering the market. The cancellation rate seasonally ranges from 12 to 18% in the upcoming summer to fall months. 
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last April, 57% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This April, 65% of the homes sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this April compared to 16% in April 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Will Begin to Confront LESS Competition
  Buyers have been confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. Buyers: Don't Despair. The market is nearing its usual Memorial Day pivot that occurs each year when buyers begin to navigate the market with some leverage. Buyer showings peak in Apr/May, then decline approximately 25% Memorial Day weekend, and begin a downtrend to year-end.  
  
  
• Fed May Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the May 2 meeting. Increasing inflation has pushed expected rate cuts out even further. The futures market is pricing a 91% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and a 71% chance of no change at the July meeting with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in September. Remember, it was just a few months ago when so-called experts projected 6 rate cuts this year!
  
  
• Headline Inflation HOLDS at 3.4%, UP 0.3% Mar to Apr
  As reported today, inflation fell slightly in April from March's 3.5% year-to-year, and 0.4% month-to-month. Inflation is stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 11 months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate HOLDS Above 7%
  Mortgage rates spiked to 7.5% in late April due to worsening inflation data. Since then, rates have relaxed in the low 7% range. VA/FHA rates are running about 0.75% lower. At the May meeting, the Fed announced it would reduce its bond sales from $95 to 60 billion per month to help reduce rates. The Fed has been trying to reduce its record $9 trillion balance sheet by selling bonds. This is a Fed balance sheet that was less than $1 trillion before 2009, and less than $4 trillion before 2020. When the Fed sells bonds it increases supply which reduces prices. Price and yield (interest rates) have an inverse relationship. The Fed selling bonds pushes up interest rates, contrary to the objectives it desires by reducing the Fed Funds rate. This is a difficult problem for the Fed to reconcile.

March Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 5.5%
  Northern Virginia and all major sub-markets including Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties hit new all-time price highs in March. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Remain Strong
  Buyer Showings (demand) remain strong tracking 2023 numbers. Strong buyer showings are especially seen in certain localities and well-conditioned homes. The recent spike in interest rates appears to have caused about a 10 to 15% drop in showings.
  
  
• Listings UP 21% from February to March
  This is less than the typical UP 40%+ seen in the last 5 years. New Listings in March slowed somewhat compared to last March due to Spring Break/Easter this year hitting the March calendar compared to April last year.
  
  
• March Listings DOWN 38% vs. 5-year Average
  The number of homes sold thru March was down slightly from last year (-4%) relaxing off a positive number Jan-Feb (up 1%). This is likely due to Spring Break/Easter hitting the March calendar.
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023. However, analysts are expecting sellers to begin loosening up in 2024 bringing more inventory to market.
  
  
• Contract Ratio UP from 1.00 to 1.08 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory Falls from 1.15 to 1.00 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (1.01 mos in March 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Produce More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 101% compared to 99% last March. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals. Buyers: Don't Despair. The market is nearing the usual Memorial Day pivot that occurs each year when buyers begin to navigate the market with some leverage.
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last March, 63% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This March, 71% of the homes sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this March compared to 16% in March 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Confronted More Competition
  Buyers are confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. From showings to multiple offers, to escalating prices and waived contingencies, to fewer days on market. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations now operating at 12-month lows falling to just 6.5% last week. 
  
  
• Fed March Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the March 20 meeting. Increased inflation in March is pushing expected rate cuts out even further. The futures market is pricing a 94% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the May 1 meeting and a 75% chance of no change at the June meeting with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in July. Remember, it was just three months ago when so-called experts were projecting 6 rate cuts this year!
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.5%, UP 0.4% Feb to Mar
  As reported last week, inflation increased from last month's 3.2%. Month-to-month inflation remains hot at 0.4%. Inflation is stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 10 months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES Above 7%
  Mortgage rates have spiked to above 7.25% due to worsening inflation data last week. VA/FHA rates are running about 0.75% lower. The bond market reacted by bidding up rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing. Buyers have shown a propensity to move to the sidelines the past two years during rate spikes.

February Highlights:

• LISTINGS MAKE BID AT A BOTTOM; PRICES MOVE HIGHER
  
  
• Northern Virginia Listings UP 3.2%
  February marked the first month since June 2021 with an increase in listings (UP 3.2%). That breaks 32 consecutive months (year-over-year) Northern Virginia listings have been down in the red. Also in February, prices accelerated with the average home price in Northern Virginia closing at $739,300 (up 10% from $673,600 in February 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Surge
  Buyer Showings (demand) have surged in recent months with the fall in interest rates. During a time of relatively low winter inventory, this has made for frequent difficulty buyers accessing the homes they want to see. Advantage sellers.
  
  
• Listings UP 14% from January to February
  This reverses DOWN 5% last February and is consistent with levels seen in the last 5 years.
  
  
• February Listings DOWN 29% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold in Jan to Feb UP 1% from last year.
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023. However, analysts are expecting sellers to begin loosening up in 2024 bringing more inventory to market.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at near 1.00 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory at 1.15 months
  Inventory remains below last year's level (1.22 mos in February 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Surge Produces More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 99% compared to 97% last February. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals.
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last February, 46% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This February, 61% of the homes sold in this range. There was also a notable increase in cash transactions with 20% this February compared to 15% in February 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Confronted More Competition
  Buyers are confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. From showings to multiple offers, to escalating prices and waived contingencies, to fewer days on market. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations which are operating at 12-month lows (7%). 
  
  
• Fed January Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the January 31 meeting. The futures market is pricing a better than 95% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the March and May meetings with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in June. This would be a relatively serious departure from the Fed's firm stance the last two years that they will not reduce rates until the 2% target inflation rate is reached for a sustained number of months.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.2%, UP 0.4% Jan to Feb
  As reported last week, inflation slightly increased from last month's 3.1%. Month-to-month inflation accelerated from 0.3 to 0.4%. Inflation remains stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 9 months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rate STEADY near 7%
  After a few months of rates falling to the mid 6's, they bounced back to near 7% due to persistently stubborn inflation and an economy that is not cooling as the Fed intends. The bond market reacted by bidding up rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.

January Highlights:

• 2024 KICKS OFF WITH HIGHER HOME PRICES
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UP 7%
  In January, the average home price in Northern Virginia was $713,100 (up 7% from $665,600 in January 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Surge
  Buyer Showings (demand) have surged in recent months with the fall in interest rates. During a time of relatively low winter inventory, this has made for frequent difficulty buyers accessing the homes they want to see. Advantage sellers.
  
  
• Listings UP 70% from December to January
  This compares to UP 62% last January and is consistent with levels seen in the last 5 years.
  
  
• January Listings DOWN 26% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold in January UP 1% from last January.
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023. However, analysts are expecting sellers to begin loosening up in 2024 bringing more inventory to market.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at near 1.00 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory at 1.29 months
  Inventory remains below last year's level (1.55 mos in January 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Surge Produces More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 99% compared to 97% last January. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals.
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last January, 29% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This January, 42% of the homes sold in this range. There was also a notable increase in cash offers with 20% this January compared to 15% last January.
  
  
• Buyers Confronted More Competition
  Buyers are confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. From showings to multiple offers, to escalating prices and waived contingencies, to fewer days on market.
  
  
• Fed January Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the January 31 meeting. The futures market is pricing an 85% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the March meeting with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in May. This would be a relatively serious departure from the Fed's firm stance the last two years that they will not reduce rates until the 2% target inflation rate is reached for a sustained number of months.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.1%, UP 0.3% Dec to Jan
  As reported today, even though inflation fell from last month's 3.4%, prices were higher than expected at 3.1% year-over-year. Month-to-month was up 0.3%. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rate RISES to Near 7%
  After a few months of rates falling to the mid 6's, they bounced back to near 7% due to a persistently strong labor market. The January job reports came in higher than expected. This suggests the market is not cooling as desired by the Fed which caused the bond market to react by bidding up rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.

December Highlights:

• DESPITE HIGH RATES, PRICES FINISH STRONG YEAR
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UP 4% in 2023
  Northern Virginia finished strong with the average price appreciating $27,000 to close at $733,600. While prices were up, 2023 marked another year with declining home units sold (27,300). This is down 22% from the 35,100 homes sold in 2022, and down 42% from the 47,100 peak in 2021. Most sub-markets in Northern Virginia ranged from 3 to 9% appreciation with Manassas City leading ($30,000 appreciation on a $469,000 average price). Fairfax and Loudoun counties continued to lead Northern Virginia in terms of number of homes sold and average price. Fairfax closed the year with the top average selling price - $1,132,000 (detached homes). This compares to more affordable Prince William County finishing at $710,000 (37% less).
  
  
• High Interest Rates Dampened Buyer Showings in 2023
  Buyer Showings (demand) were down 25% compared to 2022. More and more buyers moved from actively showing to the sidelines as interest rates ranged between 6.5 to 8% for most of the year. Many buyers even left the market altogether delaying their purchase. Buyers were very opportunistic with rate moves. Like now, there has been a recent surge in showings as interest rates have fallen from the late October high of 8% to the current 6.5%.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 26% from November to December
  This compares to typically DOWN 34% last 5 years.
  
  
• December Listings DOWN 36% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to Dec DOWN 22% (7,900 homes).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" Stayed in Place
  However, analysts are expecting these sellers to begin loosening up in 2024 bringing more inventory to market.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at near 1.00 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory FALLS to 1.12 months
  Inventory remains below last year's levels (1.24 mos in December 2022).
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation in 2023
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price finished the year at 100.2% (down from 100.8% in 2022). However, days on market (DOM) remained in the fast lane with 63% of homes selling between 0 to 10 DOM. This high velocity is unchanged from 2022. DOM in Northern Virginia increased only two days from 17 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Confronted Less Competition in 2023
  During the year, the movement of Buyer Showings (demand) consistently ran below the movement of Seller Listings (supply). For much of the year, we experienced a buyer-advantaged 20+ points spread between showing highs and listing highs. This relationship can be indicative of "conviction" like stocks that trade between buyers in sellers. Overall, it's still a seller-advantaged market to be sure, but this lack of conviction is what dampened buyer escalation and waived contingencies commonly offered in 2021. Additionally, contract cancellations by buyers averaged about 15% (1-in-6) compared to about half that in 2021.
  
  
• Fed Meets Jan 31: EXPECTED TO REMAIN at 5.25%
  The futures market is pricing a 95% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the January meeting. The futures market flips to a 68% chance the Fed will reduce rates 0.25% in March. This would be a relatively serious departure from the Fed's firm stance the last two years that they will not reduce rates until the 2% target inflation rate is reached for a sustained number of months.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.4%, UP 0.3% Nov to Dec
  As reported last week, inflation unexpectedly increased from 3.1 to 3.4% year-over-year. Month-to-month was up 0.3%. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates STEADY in the Mid 6's
  Rates have seemingly reached some balance in the current 6.5% range not seen since July 2023. This is markedly down from the 8% high just a few months ago. The current tug-of-war appears to be more about how long will the Fed hold existing rates before reducing them. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.

November Highlights:

• LOUDOUN COUNTY HOME PRICES UP 9%
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UP 1.4%
  September marked the largest month-to-month fall in prices in over 6 years. During October and November, prices have held steady in Northern Virginia preparing for the close of the year. Loudoun County was the November outlier among NoVa's main sub-markets, quietly setting an all-time median price high of $725,000, eclipsing $720,000 set in both March 2023 and April 2022. Overall, home prices are up 3.5% for the year in Northern Virginia.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Tracking Near 2023 Low
  Showings are tracking the typical seasonal downtrend. However, there has been a recent uncharacteristic spike in showings the past month likely in response to declining mortgage rates.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 33% from October to November
  This compares to typically DOWN 31% last 5 years.
  
  
• November Listings DOWN 37% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to Nov DOWN 23% (7,550 homes).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 1.08 (shift to sellers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.36 months
  Inventory still remains below November 2022 levels of 1.61 months.
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price steady at 100.0% (no change Oct to Nov).
  
  
• Buyers are Finding Less Competition
  As of the week ending December 10, Listing and Showing movement are nearly equal. Seller listings are 65% below the 2023 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 56%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers are navigating with less competition than earlier in the year. HOWEVER, there are still pockets of remarkable competition at certain price points, especially when rates opportunistically decline. As mentioned last month, a detached home in the Chantilly HS pyramid in pristine condition listed at $769,900 and received (41) offers! The home closed at $908,000 last week, escalating 18%, marking very unusual buyer behavior in today's market.
  
  
• Fed Meets Dec 13: EXPECTED TO REMAIN at 5.25%
  The futures market is pricing with 98% certainty the Fed will hold rates unchanged at tomorrow's policy meeting making it the third consecutive meeting with no change in rates. Despite this, the Fed has indicated there may be more to do with inflation still well above their target.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.1%, UP 0.1% Oct to Nov
  As reported today, inflation fell very slightly from 3.2 to 3.1% year-over-year. Month-to-month was up 0.1%. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates FALL to the Upper 6's
  Rates have steadily declined the last month from nearly 8% to the upper 6% level not seen since July. The decline can be attributed to inflation relaxing to the low 3's and certain data suggesting the economy is cooling possibly pointing to the Fed's work being complete. The current tug-of-war appears to be more about how long will the Fed hold existing rates, rather than will they be increasing rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.

October Highlights:

• PRICES STEADY FROM LAST MONTH'S DECLINE
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UNCHANGED 0.0%
  Last month, (September) marked the largest month-to-month fall in prices in over 6 years. Making this even more worth watching, Fairfax County, the area's largest sub-market carrying approximately 50% of Northern Virginia's activity, experienced a decline in median prices of 9.1%. Average prices declined ever sharper (-14%) with detached homes and condos carrying the move (townhome prices were unchanged). While significant, this is just a month-to-month move. It remains to be seen if this will be the beginning of a more impactful decline in home prices over time as desired by the Federal Reserve, or simply a relaxing of prices continued to be held up by low inventory.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Tracking Near 2023 Low
  Showings are tracking the typical seasonal downtrend. However, with somewhat more intensity due to elevated interest rates pushing more buyers to the sidelines.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 6% from September to October
  This compares to typically DOWN 5% last 5 years.
  
  
• October Listings DOWN 38% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to Oct DOWN 24% (7,400 homes).
  
  
• "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio steady at 0.94 (slight shift to buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory RISES to 1.37 months
  However, inventory still remains below October 2022 levels of 1.66 months.
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price steady at 100.0% (no change Sep to Oct).
  
  
• Buyers are Finding Less Competition
  As of the week ending November 5, there was a 17 pts spread between Listing and Showing movement. Seller listings are 35% below the 2023 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 52%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers are able to navigate with less competition than earlier in the year.
  HOWEVER, there are still pockets of remarkable competition at certain price points, especially when rates opportunistically decline. This past weekend a detached home in the Chantilly HS pyramid in pristine condition listed at $769,900 and received (41) offers!
  
  
• Fed Meeting in Nov: Fed Rate REMAINS at 5.25%
  Fed keeps rates unchanged at now two consecutive policy meetings, but indicates there may be more to do with inflation still well above their target.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.2%, UP 0% Sep to Oct
  Reported on November 14, inflation fell from 3.7 to 3.2% year-over-year. Month-to-month was unchanged (0%). Two good data points, and mortgage rates responded accordingly falling 1/2 point today to about 7%. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates Continue Volatility
  Rates have been very volatile during the last month. First, rising to a high of 8% high in late October. Then falling about 1/2 point to 7.5%, and yesterday another 1/2 point to 7% after positive news about inflation falling. It's unclear if this is simply a pullback before a higher move, or is there now a lid on the 8% high? The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it's been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.