May Highlights:

• APRIL MOMENTUM CONTINUES INTO MAY
  
  
• Fairfax County Hits Fresh All-Time Price High 
  Home prices finished strongly in May. The median price in Northern Virginia held even with April's all-time high of $749,900, soundly beating the previous high by 2.4% set in May 2025 ($732,500). Fairfax County home prices surged even higher, hitting a fresh all-time high of $815,000 and beating April by $9,000. The rising prices are consistent with other seller advantages like the rapidly declining Active Listings at just 4% higher than May 2025 compared to last year when it was up 51% over 2024. Similarly, the Sold-to-List Price Ratio turned positive in May, now up 40 basis points over May 2025. This is much improved compared to the negative 220 basis points last May. All this points to an uptick in buyer demand in recent months absorbing excess supply, and shifting the three important top-line market metrics toward sellers. Here is May 2026 compared to May 2025 - Active Listings (UP 4%), Days on Market (NO CHANGE), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (UP 40bp). By comparison, Active Listings were UP 51% in May 2025 vs May 2024.
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 4% in 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) in May were UP 2%, despite rising interest rates. There were 2,300 more buyer showings in the D.C. metro area in May 2026 than in May 2025. The average age of a first-time homebuyer surged to 40 years old. Up from 33 years old in 2021 and 29 years old in 1981.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 9% from April to May
  This is relatively slower than last April DOWN 5% as well as the typical average DOWN 1% during the last 6 years. The 350+ fewer New Listings offered by sellers in May, combined with the 200+ fewer Active Listings contributed to the moderate shift toward sellers this spring. Mainly seen in improved Days on Market and Sold-to-List-Price Ratio.
  
  
• May Listings DOWN 8% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain slightly down compared to long-term averages (-8%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. This increasing supply helped to increase total homes sold in Jan-May 2026 (11,507) compared to Jan-May 2025 (10,875) - UP 6%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. However, in 2025, sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market (UP 8%). Seller behavior has thus far followed through this year UP 2% through May. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.77 (slight shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 44% of the total May listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 56%. This is a slight shift toward buyers from the 46/54 seen in April, but is pacing better than the 42/58 seen in May 2025. Seller Price Reductions are on the rise, now tracking 36% of the current 4,000 Active listings in mid-June. The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  
  
• Inventory NO CHANGE vs. May 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia is steady in 2026 after 2025's fast-paced uptrend over 2024. May inventory of 1.91 months was almost equal to the 1.90 months in May 2025. Inventory has been held down by the rapid 47 points decline in Active Listings (currently just 4% higher than May 2025 - 186 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively balanced buyer-seller market compared to 2020-24 when May inventory ranged from just 0.77 to 1.30 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio UP 40bp with Fewer Listings
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.5% of Seller Asking in May - same as April. This is up 40 basis points from the 100.1% experienced in May 2025. An improving Sold-to-List Price Ratio is typical in spring months with rising Contract Ratios. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 12% is tracking more seller-advantaged than normal.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is SLIGHTLY UP from 2025
  Speed to contract has improved for sellers in recent months as is typical in spring, but continues its relatively slower pace in recent years with 65% of the 3,226 homes sold in May transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). By contrast, 16% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market. This is a slight difference between now and last year. In May 2025, 63% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while 65% in May 2026, up 2 points.

• Fed April Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the April meeting (no May meeting). Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged from Fed action as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled on June 17. The futures market is presently pricing a 99.6% chance of no rate change.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 4.2%, FALLS to 0.5% Apr to May
  Inflation spiked in May to 4.2% year-to-year compared to April (3.8%). This is the highest level in three years. Inflation month-to-month decreased to 0.5% from April's 0.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations given the recent rapid rise in energy prices. "Core Inflation" increased slightly to 2.9% from last month's 2.8%. Core inflation excludes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY in Low/Mid 6's
  With the recent market volatility, mortgage rates increased with investor flight to safety. Rates are up about 5/8 point since the Feb/Mar lows. Conforming rates are hovering around 6.5% and VA/FHA rates at 6.125%.