July Highlights:

• PRICES PEAK FOR YEAR; SEASONAL DECLINE UNDERWAY
  
  
• Fairfax County Average Price Down 2% From May High 
  Home prices peaked as usual in May/June (contracts written in April/May) across all Northern Virginia sub-markets. The typical seasonal price decline is now underway in Northern Virginia with a contracting summer buyer pool. The median price declined 3.4% from June to July. Prices typically stabilize in September with a spike in buyer showings (demand) after Labor Day. The three important top-line market metrics remain consistent through July. Here is July 2026 compared to July 2025 - Active Listings (UP 16%), Days on Market (UP 5%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (UP 30bp).
  
  
• Buyer Showings UP 2% in 2026
  Buyer showings (demand) in July were DOWN 5% compared to last year, likely due to rising interest rates. However, for the year showings remain UP 2%. Year to date, there have been 13,000 more buyer showings in the D.C. metro area than last year. The average age of a first-time homebuyer surged to 40 years old. Up from 33 years old in 2021 and 29 years old in 1981.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 10% from June to July
  This is weaker than last month DOWN 5% but consistent with the typical average DOWN 11% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• July Listings DOWN 6% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024, resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. Listings remain slightly down compared to long-term averages (-6%), but have substantially improved in Northern Virginia from down 20 to 40% in recent years. This improvement is primarily because the higher listing years before the pandemic continue to fall out of the 5-year calculation. This increasing supply helped to increase total homes sold in Jan-Jul 2026 (17,636) compared to Jan-Jul 2025 (16,798) - UP 5%.
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. However, in 2025, sellers brought an increasing number of New Listings to the market (UP 8%). Seller behavior continues to trend this year UP 4.2% through July. The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.52 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 34% of the total July listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 66%. This is a marked shift toward buyers from the 44/56 seen in May and 39/61 in June. July 2026 is pacing about 15% slower than the 38/62 seen in July 2025. Seller Price Reductions are holding at relative highs, now tracking 41% of the current 4,600 Active listings in mid-August. The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  
  
• Inventory UP 12% vs. July 2025
  Inventory in Northern Virginia is relatively steady in 2026 after 2025's fast-paced uptrend over 2024. However, July inventory of 2.10 months did begin to outpace and separate from the 1.87 months in July 2025 (UP 12%). The higher inventory in 2025-26 is primarily a result of a marked increase in the number of Active Listings lasting on the market. There are about 2,600+ more Active Listings at any one time than in 2024 and earlier. This presents a relatively balanced buyer-seller market compared to 2020-24 when July inventory ranged from just 0.93 to 1.32 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio UP 30bp Displays Some Buyer Flex
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99% of Seller Asking in July - down from 99.7% in June. However, this is up 30 basis points from the 98.7% experienced in July 2025. A declining Sold-to-List Price Ratio is typical in the slower summer months with falling Contract Ratios. The contract cancellation rate generally ranges between 12 and 18%. The current cancellation rates in mid-August are trending between 15 to 20%, relatively normal for this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is SLIGHTLY UP from 2025
  Speed to contract is consistent with last year and seasonal trends. In July, 48% of the 2,745 homes sold transacted in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), down from 65% in May and 56% in June, but up slightly from 47% in July 2025. By contrast, 26% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market - similar to the 27% in July 2025.

• Fed July Meeting: RATE STEADY at 3.50%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the July meeting. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged from Fed action as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) was not anticipating a cut. The next meeting is scheduled for September 16. The recent hawkish sentiment from the Fed's voting membership has moved the futures to a 33% chance of a 0.25% rate increase.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.4%, FALLS to 0.4% Jun to Jul
  Inflation fell slightly in July to 3.4% year-to-year compared to June (3.5%). Inflation month-to-month decreased to 0.1% from June's 0.4%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" decreased to 2.5% from last month's 2.6%. Core inflation excludes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY in Low/Mid 6's
  With the increase in inflation during the last several months, mortgage rates have been pressured upward. However, rates have fallen in the last few weeks, but are still up about 5/8 point since the Feb/Mar lows. Conforming rates are hovering around 6.5% and VA/FHA rates around 6%.