October Highlights:

• PRICES STEADY FROM LAST MONTH'S DECLINE
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UNCHANGED 0.0%
  Last month, (September) marked the largest month-to-month fall in prices in over 6 years. Making this even more worth watching, Fairfax County, the area's largest sub-market carrying approximately 50% of Northern Virginia's activity, experienced a decline in median prices of 9.1%. Average prices declined ever sharper (-14%) with detached homes and condos carrying the move (townhome prices were unchanged). While significant, this is just a month-to-month move. It remains to be seen if this will be the beginning of a more impactful decline in home prices over time as desired by the Federal Reserve, or simply a relaxing of prices continued to be held up by low inventory.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Tracking Near 2023 Low
  Showings are tracking the typical seasonal downtrend. However, with somewhat more intensity due to elevated interest rates pushing more buyers to the sidelines.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 6% from September to October
  This compares to typically DOWN 5% last 5 years.
  
  
• October Listings DOWN 38% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to Oct DOWN 24% (7,400 homes).
  
  
• "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio steady at 0.94 (slight shift to buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory RISES to 1.37 months
  However, inventory still remains below October 2022 levels of 1.66 months.
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price steady at 100.0% (no change Sep to Oct).
  
  
• Buyers are Finding Less Competition
  As of the week ending November 5, there was a 17 pts spread between Listing and Showing movement. Seller listings are 35% below the 2023 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 52%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers are able to navigate with less competition than earlier in the year.
  HOWEVER, there are still pockets of remarkable competition at certain price points, especially when rates opportunistically decline. This past weekend a detached home in the Chantilly HS pyramid in pristine condition listed at $769,900 and received (41) offers!
  
  
• Fed Meeting in Nov: Fed Rate REMAINS at 5.25%
  Fed keeps rates unchanged at now two consecutive policy meetings, but indicates there may be more to do with inflation still well above their target.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3.2%, UP 0% Sep to Oct
  Reported on November 14, inflation fell from 3.7 to 3.2% year-over-year. Month-to-month was unchanged (0%). Two good data points, and mortgage rates responded accordingly falling 1/2 point today to about 7%. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates Continue Volatility
  Rates have been very volatile during the last month. First, rising to a high of 8% high in late October. Then falling about 1/2 point to 7.5%, and yesterday another 1/2 point to 7% after positive news about inflation falling. It's unclear if this is simply a pullback before a higher move, or is there now a lid on the 8% high? The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it's been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing.