May Highlights:

• PRICES UP STRONG / SUMMER PIVOT BEGINS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices UP 5%
  Median price ($670,000) breaks all-time high set last May.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Lag 2022 Levels by 18%
  Showings up 10% compared to 2019. Buyers continue to be interest rate sensitive.
  
  
• Listings UP 9% from April to May
  This compares to typically UP 3% last 5 years.
  
  
• May Listings DOWN 37% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to May DOWN 30% (4,700 homes).
  
  
• "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio remains above 1.0 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory at just 1 month
  
  
• Sellers See More Multiple Offers and Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price remains at 102% (Apr to May). However, this represents contracts written in April.
  
  
• Buyers: The Post Memorial Day Pivot has Begun
  Following the 28% decline in showings Memorial Day weekend, the market experiences its normal shift toward buyers being able to better navigate as showings peak for the year and begin to decline to year-end. It's still a sellers' market, but the market begins to move at a slower summer pace.
  
  
• Fed HOLDS at 5% in June (inflation dips below Fed)
  Fed signals two 0.25 point increases later in 2023, and suggests holding rates at these levels for the next two years.
  
  
• Headline Inflation falls to 4%, up 0.1% from Apr to May
  Month-to-Month inflation needs to be flat to negative for several months to get back to the 1 to 2% target. In the mid-1930's, John Maynard Keynes addressed the economic phenomenon of "sticky wages and prices". Companies are resistant to reducing wages and prices. This may work against deflation and reaching 1 to 2%.
  
  
• Interest Rates Rise 1/2 Point to Upper 6's
  This half-point increase has sidelined some buyers by taking away $30k of purchasing power.