April Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT NEW ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 3.7%
  Northern Virginia and major sub-markets including Fairfax and Loudoun counties follow-through March highs and hit new all-time price highs in April. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory, down 2% compared to last year.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Peak; Seasonal Decline Begins
  Buyer Showings (demand) remain strong tracking 2023 numbers. Strong buyer showings are especially seen in certain localities and well-conditioned homes. The market is about to begin its seasonal decline in showings following the typical April/May peak. While still a seller-advantaged market, sellers will see a steady decline in showings to year-end beginning Memorial Day weekend with the usual 25% drop.
  
  
• Listings UP 24% from March to April
  This is more than the typical UP 9% during the last 5 years. New Listings skewed somewhat higher in April compared to last year because some sellers avoided listing in March opting to wait until April after this year's late March Spring Break/Easter holiday week.
  
  
• April Listings DOWN 26% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages. The number of homes sold through April (7,950) is nearly the same as last year (7,918).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not panned out with just 9,558 New Listings in Jan-Apr 2024 compared to 9,738 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are DOWN 2% YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio UP from 1.08 to 1.21 (highly seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.06 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (1.05 mos in April 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Produce More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 101% compared to 99% last April. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations. Last month's 6.5% cancellation rate increased to 9.4% this week, indicating buyer contingencies are re-entering the market. The cancellation rate seasonally ranges from 12 to 18% in the upcoming summer to fall months. 
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last April, 57% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This April, 65% of the homes sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this April compared to 16% in April 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Will Begin to Confront LESS Competition
  Buyers have been confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. Buyers: Don't Despair. The market is nearing its usual Memorial Day pivot that occurs each year when buyers begin to navigate the market with some leverage. Buyer showings peak in Apr/May, then decline approximately 25% Memorial Day weekend, and begin a downtrend to year-end.  
  
  
• Fed May Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the May 2 meeting. Increasing inflation has pushed expected rate cuts out even further. The futures market is pricing a 91% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and a 71% chance of no change at the July meeting with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in September. Remember, it was just a few months ago when so-called experts projected 6 rate cuts this year!
  
  
• Headline Inflation HOLDS at 3.4%, UP 0.3% Mar to Apr
  As reported today, inflation fell slightly in April from March's 3.5% year-to-year, and 0.4% month-to-month. Inflation is stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 11 months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate HOLDS Above 7%
  Mortgage rates spiked to 7.5% in late April due to worsening inflation data. Since then, rates have relaxed in the low 7% range. VA/FHA rates are running about 0.75% lower. At the May meeting, the Fed announced it would reduce its bond sales from $95 to 60 billion per month to help reduce rates. The Fed has been trying to reduce its record $9 trillion balance sheet by selling bonds. This is a Fed balance sheet that was less than $1 trillion before 2009, and less than $4 trillion before 2020. When the Fed sells bonds it increases supply which reduces prices. Price and yield (interest rates) have an inverse relationship. The Fed selling bonds pushes up interest rates, contrary to the objectives it desires by reducing the Fed Funds rate. This is a difficult problem for the Fed to reconcile.