Tim Trainum Properties
"Delivering a Preferred Experience in Real Estate!"
REALTOR®, VA License #0225235004
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May
17
17
How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market During COVID-19? (April Update)
April Data Mixed During the First Full Month of Stay-At-Home Orders
Here are some of the leading top-line metrics that best illustrate the health of the Northern Virginia residential real estate market in April. As can be expected, Listings are Down, Pendings (Contracts) are Down, Closed Transactions are Down and Showings are Down. However, there is underlying strength supporting the housing market - Prices are Up, Days on Market are Fewer and Sold-to-List Price Ratio is Up. The tables are self-explanatory, but I offer a few highlights below:
- Listings & Contracts are down about 33% in April. This rate of contraction is quite significant to be sure, but when taken in the context of a near-total stoppage of economic activity across the U.S. imposed by federal, state and local government, housing activity remained relatively brisk. I would also point to the ratio between Contracts and Listings which is nearly unchanged from 2019 to 2020. In 2019, April saw 4,565 new contracts against 5,669 new listings (80% ratio). This April was 2,960 against 3,755 (79%). Seller and buyer behavior determining those ratios is nearly unchanged.
- Showings in Virginia continued to decline from March into April. Buyer showings were down 54% at the low during the week of March 30 compared to the same time last year. While the numbers were dramatically down, this was in the face of Stay-At-Home orders. The line graph also displays marked week-to-week improvement since bottoming and a trend back towards par experience. During the week of May 15 showings were off only 19% compared to last year.
- Underlying Market Strength is being evidenced by the continued strong buyer demand pushing the median price in Northern Virginia up $35,000 (7.1%) from $490,000 to $525,000. Likewise, homes are coming under contract 30% faster than the same period last year with just 14 days on market. Consistent with low days on market, sellers are receiving on average better than List Price at 100.2%, up almost a full point from last year.
- Tempered Buyer/Seller Behavior continues from March into April. Buyers are showing more restraint in chasing homes to elevated prices and contingency risk. This is seen by instances of fewer multiple offers and fewer offers when multiples occur. Sellers are relaxing expectations to be more in-line with the economic contraction. Contract fall-outs are up (a fall-out occurs when a buyer voids the contract while in escrow). Lenders are tightening borrowing guidelines consistent with Fannie Mae requirements.
- Relatively Smaller, Independent Broker-Agent Business Models Continue to be Best Positioned to help buyers and sellers reach their objectives. This is statistically true in any market, but it becomes even more evident in challenging markets like now. Redfin, an employee-based broker model, furloughed 41% of its agents. Compass cut its staff by 15%, and publicly traded Realogy (owner of brands like Century 21, Coldwell Banker and Sotheby's) who was already struggling in recent years have experienced similar cuts. Each company, Zillow and others have all suspended iBuyer platforms they billed as technologically revolutionizing the R/E space, but in times like these it shows how ineffective the technology may be and where it truly ranks among the company's business priorities.
- Agent Expertise Matters even more now. The divide between Top Producing and low producing agents has grown even wider during this period. Buyers and sellers will find the best outcomes with high-value, leading agents who understand execution, process and best practices. My agency is calibrated to achieve exceptional results for my clients. I don't practice any other outcome.
"My overarching objective is first and foremost to be an advisor and value provider. I work to become the conduit of information to help consumers make the most informed decisions possible. I just happen to also have a real estate license." - Tim Trainum
Tim Trainum Properties
Office: (571) 386-1075 Cell: (703) 568-6750 Email Me
- 43777 Central Station Drive
- Suite 390
- Ashburn, VA 20147
Office: (571) 386-1075 Cell: (703) 568-6750 Email Me
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