October Highlights:

• BALANCED MARKET TRENDING; PRICES STILL UP 4.4% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory STABILIZES into Fall
  The upward trend in inventory over the last several months appears to be stabilizing. Inventory in Northern Virginia has traded in a relatively tight range from 1.76 to 1.91 months since April. October inventory was 1.79 mos. Generally, this remains a seller-advantaged level of inventory but is up significantly (36%) from last year. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from October 2024 - Active Listings (UP 40%), Days on Market (UP 29%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 150bp). Home prices appear to be plateauing in 2025 year-over-year with deceleration month-to-month. Prices began the year UP 11% but have settled down the last three months at UP 4%. Home prices in the City of Falls Church sub-market are the first to turn negative for the year (-3%). However, it should be noted that the City of Falls Church is the smallest sub-market in our area with only 148 homes sold YTD.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 3% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, since June showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. Overall, showings have not been impacted by the 43-day government shutdown with showings materially the same to slightly higher than this time last year.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 14% from September to October
  This is consistent with the DOWN 11% in October 2024 as well as the typical average DOWN 12% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• October Listings DOWN 12% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-12%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Oct (24,312) are tracking UP 1% compared to 2024 (24,067).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Oct (33,205) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Oct 2024 (30,448). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.59 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 36% of the total October listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 64% - little change from Jul/Aug/Sep. However, this is a relatively significant change from October 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.81 (43% Under Contract and 57% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged this year, speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Reductions (41% of currently Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 36% vs. October 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. October inventory was 1.79 mos, 36% higher than October 2024 inventory of 1.32 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 35% higher - 2,600 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when October inventory ranged from just 0.90 to 1.31 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.1% of Seller Asking in October. This is notably down from the 99.6% experienced in October 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio this year is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price reductions, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into fall. The contract cancellation rate has generally ranged between 12 and 18%. The current 13% is typical of this time of year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract continues its relatively slower pace with 42% of the 2,470 homes sold in October transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is similar to recent months. By contrast, 34% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, also similar to recent months. However, this is a significant difference between now and last year. In October 2024, 53% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 42% in October 2025, down 11 points.

• Fed October Meeting: RATE CUT to 3.75%
  In line with market expectations, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate 1/4 point to 3.75% on October 29. Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged after the cut as the bond market (which determines mortgage rates) had likely priced in the cut. The next meeting is scheduled for December 10. The futures market is presently pricing a 57% chance of another 1/4 point rate cut.
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.0%, RISES 0.3% Aug to Sep
  As reported on October 24, inflation increased slighlty from August 2.9% to September 3.0% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also rose slightly from 0.2 to 0.3%. Both numbers were slightly below expectations. Likewise, "Core Inflation" increased somewhat from 2.9% in August to 3.0% in September. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate STEADY at Low 6's
  Mortgage rates continue to trend down and stabilize in the low-6 range. Rates are at the low end of a 6 to 7.25% trading range seen for almost three years. Rates have seen the low 6's in January 2023, October 2024, and now. VA/FHA rates broke the 5 barrier (now 5.75%). Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming rates are tracking the 6.125% range with Jumbo rates higher (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).