July Highlights:

• KEY MARKET METRICS SHIFT TOWARD BUYERS; BECOMING LESS SELLER-AVANTAGED
  
  
• Northern Virginia Inventory TRENDS HIGHER into Summer
  Rising inventory continues to shift the market to a more balanced position between buyers and sellers, something not seen in the last six years. This is reflected in three important market metrics all tracking significant variances from July 2024 - Active Listings (UP 47%), Days on Market (UP 33%), and Sold-to-List Price Ratio (DOWN 180bp). Despite rising inventory, home prices are generally holding at relative highs. The median price in our largest sub-market Fairfax County is within 2.8% of its all-time high reached in May ($787,000). However, home prices in Northern Virginia may be showing signs of plateauing as price internals are decelerating. The price increase for YTD 2025 compared to 2024 has been more than halved in the first seven months of the year. Prices opened in January UP 11.2% but have declined each subsequent month to UP 4.4% in July. This market behavior, and more, is further explained below.
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 5% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) are down slightly for the year, however, for the last several weeks showings have been tracking equal to or higher than 2024. July 2025 showings were UP 7% compared to July 2024. In August, buyer showings are seasonally trending down against vacations and schools beginning session. Come Labor Day (September 1), the market experiences a seasonal 30%+ spike in showings carrying higher activity into mid-October.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 2% from June to July
  This is consistent with DOWN 4% in July 2024 and a departure from the typical average DOWN 13% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• July Listings DOWN 22% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-22%). Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Jul (16,798) are tracking almost exactly 2024 (16,807).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Jul (23,676) are UP 9% compared to Jan-Jul 2024 (21,725). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.57 (stronger shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 37% of the total July listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 63%. This is a significant departure from July 2024 when the contract ratio was 0.85 (46% Under Contract and 54% Active for Sale). The Contract Ratio continues to be uncharacteristically buyer-advantaged for July speaking to the higher inventory. This buyer-advantaged Contract Ratio runs directly to the relatively higher frequency of Seller Price Declines (12% of Active listings). The importance of sellers correctly pricing a home in today's market cannot be overstated. 
  

• Inventory INCREASES 43% vs. July 2024
  Inventory is trending higher in Northern Virginia. July inventory was 1.83 mos, 43% higher than July 2024 inventory of 1.28 mos. Since March 2024, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 32% higher - 2,400 listings in the DC Metro area). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when July inventory ranged from just 0.89 to 1.37 mos.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio DOWN with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 98.7% of Seller Asking in July. This is down significantly from the 100.5% experienced in July 2024. The compressing Sold-to-List Price Ratio is consistent with the falling Contract Ratios, seller price declines, rising Inventory, influx of buyer contract contingencies, and the more balanced market seen this spring and now into summer. The current contract cancellation rate has ranged between 15 to 25% (today it's 20%). This is markedly higher than the 10% this time last year.
  
  
• Speed to Contract is TRENDING DOWN from 2024
  Speed to contract is slowing with 47% of the 2,754 homes sold in July transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is down 6 pts from 53% in June. By contrast, 27% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market, up from 20% in June. This is a significant difference between now and last year. In July 2024, 61% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days), while only 47% in July 2025, down 14 points.

• Fed July Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on July 30 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled September 17. The futures market is presently pricing a 96% chance of a 1/4 point rate cut at the September meeting. The bond market controls interest rates. Any Fed move will likely already be priced into the market.
  
  
• Headline Inflation STEADY at 2.7%, RISES 0.2% June to July
  As reported today, inflation remained steady in July at 2.7% year-to-year same as June. Inflation month-to-month fell from 0.3 to 0.2%. Both numbers were in-line with expectations. "Core Inflation" increased somewhat from 2.9% in June to 3.1% in July. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS to 6.5%
  Mortgage rates continue to slowly decline to the mid-6 range with VA/FHA rates closing in on the high 5's. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and Jumbo rates are running together in the 6.5% range (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).