March Highlights:

• LOUDOUN CO PRICES HIT ALL-TIME HIGH
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 6.9% vs. Mar 2024
  The median price of a Northern Virginia home increased 6.9% in March 2025 compared to March 2024. It typically takes a full Q1 to get a sense of how prices will trend for the year. Through March, the average home price in Northern Virginia is up 7.4%. Most notably, Loudoun County reached an all-time median price high in March ($810,000). Fairfax County is still 3% below its all-time high set last June ($780,000).
  
  
• Buyer Showings DOWN 10% in 2025
  Buyer showings (demand) continue to hit weekly highs and trend up following seasonal expectations. Overall, Buyer showings are down 10% compared to 2024 almost repeating the 7% decline experienced in 2024 compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings UP 49% from February to March
  This is up sharply from the UP 21% in Feb 2024 but on pace with the typical average UP 42% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• March Listings DOWN 15% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings stabilized in 2024 resisting the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down compared to long-term averages (-15%). Notably, with the 5-year average now excluding 2019 from the calculation, the negative number has improved about 20 points from last year's minus mid 30's. Northern Virginia homes sold in Jan-Mar (5,098) are DOWN 2.2% compared to last year (5,213).
  
  
• "Rate Locked Sellers" are UNLOCKING Increasing Inventory
  In the wake of rising interest rates beginning in 2022, sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and repeated the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists that inventory would loosen up 15% in 2024. That didn't happen with just 27,623 New Listings in 2024 compared to 27,674 in 2023. Finally, New Listings in Jan-Mar (8,185) are UP 10% compared to Jan-Mar 2024 (7,435). The typical home seller is now 63 years old, a record high. This compares to age 54 in 2014 and age 45 in 2007.
  
  
• Contract Ratio RISES to 0.89 (shift toward sellers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 47% of the total March listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 53% - a 4 point improvement toward sellers since February. Contract ratios are trending toward a seller-advantaged time of year. 
  

• Inventory is Finally Moving Higher - RISES to 1.45 mos
  Inventory appears to be finally rising in Northern Virginia. Inventory in March was 1.45 mos, 42% higher than February 2024 inventory of 1.02 mos. For several months, Active Listings have been running markedly higher than the previous year (currently 28%). This presents a relatively more balanced buyer-seller market than experienced in 2020-24 when March inventory ranged from a slim 0.61 to 1.02 mos. This is by far the highest March inventory (1.45 mos) since 2018/19 when it was 1.64 and 1.40 mos, respectively.
  
  
• Sold-to-List Price Ratio Relaxes with Rising Inventory
  Buyer contract prices averaged 100.7% of Seller Asking in March. While up 1 point from the 99.7% in February, March 2025 lagged the 101.8% experienced in March 2024. The Sold-to-List Price ratio is trending up as typically seen in the approaching spring market, but buying sentiment is becoming more balanced due to higher inventory. The current contract cancellation rate is 12%.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Spikes into Spring
  Speed to contract continues to rise into spring with 66% of the 2,011 homes sold in March transacting in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This is up 6 points from the 60% seen in February. By contrast, 19% of sales exceeded 30+ days on market (down from 24% last month). Cash transactions represented 18% of the purchases in March. 

• Fed Mar Meeting: RATE STEADY at 4.25%
  The Fed met on March 19 and decided on no rate cut. The next meeting is scheduled May 7. The futures market is presently pricing an 80% chance of no rate cut at the May meeting.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.4%, FALLS 0.1% Feb to Mar
  As reported last week, inflation dropped from February 2.8% to March 2.4% year-to-year. Inflation month-to-month also dropped from 0.2% to negative 0.1%. "Core Inflation" dropped to 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES to 7%
  Mortgage rates have experienced a volatile few weeks. Rates fell to their lowest levels in about six months, only to rebound sharply to the 7% area. This recent volatility is attributed to stock market and tariff news. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. VA/FHA rates are running about 3/8-point lower at 6.675%. Conforming rates are running about 1/8-point lower than the 7% jumbo rates (jumbo loan is > $1,209,750).