September Highlights:

• PRICES CONTINUE TYPICAL SEASONAL DOWNTREND
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices DOWN 1.7%
  Northern Virginia prices fell in September (contracts written in August). The Aug-Sep price move was consistent with the last 6 years averaging DOWN 3%. The YTD average price in Northern Virginia is UP 8.2% compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal decline, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the Jan through May/Jun peak. As shown in the graph below, the market has given back 45% of the 2024 gains.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Spike after Labor Day
  Buyer showings (demand) spiked 30% off the August lows reclaiming the July showing highs. The September spike is normal after Labor Day renewing sales activity in September and October just before the November and December holiday decline. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. There has been a single-digit uptick in buyer showings since the Fed reduced rates on September 18.
  
  
• Listings UP 1% from August to September
  This is on pace with the typical average UP 1.5% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• September Listings DOWN 32% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-32%). Remarkably, the number of Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Sep 2024 (21,595) is almost exactly the same as last year (21,506).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 22,961 New Listings in Jan-Sep 2024 compared to 22,951 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 0.76 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 43% of the total September listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 57%. Contract ratios are at annual lows signaling a buyer-advantaged time of year.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory RISES to 1.26 months
  Inventory level up from 1.11 mos in August and up somewhat from this time last year (1.10 mos in Sep 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer to Fall Pivot is Underway
  Buyer contract prices averaged 99.2% of Seller Asking in September with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 16%). Notably for buyers, October offers the HIGHEST NUMBER of ACTIVE LISTINGS compared to any other month.
  
  
• Speed to Contract Slows in Summer & Fall
  Similar to last year, 64% of homes have sold in the fastest range YTD (0 to 10 days). Speed to contract has slowed from the 70% range experienced in the faster months as days on market typically grow in summer and fall months. For example, just 53% of the 2,138 homes sold in September transacted in the fastest range with 25% of sales exceeding 30+ days on market. Cash transactions represent 18% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year. 

• Fed Sep Meeting: RATES CUT 0.50 to 4.75%
  The Fed cut rates 0.50 point as widely expected during the September 18 meeting. Mortgage rates actually increased 0.10% after the Fed announcement since Fed action is largely priced into rates several weeks ahead of policy moves. The futures market is currently anticipating an 85% chance for an additional 0.25% cut at the next meeting scheduled November 7.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.4%, STEADY 0.2% Aug to Sep
  As reported last week, inflation continued to hold steady from August 2.5% to September 2.4% year-to-year. This is the third consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. "Core Inflation" remains in the 3's which includes more volatile energy and food prices.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES 0.50% to Low 6's
  Mortgage rates reached a relative low in mid-September trading in the 5's which had not been seen since January 2023. Since September, rates increased 0.50% on economic news. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile with very high difficulty trying to time the market. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the higher 5's with jumbo loans in mid 6's (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).