June Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT NEW ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 3.6%
  Northern Virginia prices up strong in June. All major sub-markets including Fairfax, Arlington, and Prince William counties hit new all-time median price highs. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory (1 month) just like last year.
  
  
• Buyers are Operating with More Conviction in 2024
  Currently in July, buyer showings (demand) have seasonally fallen to near January lows. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023. Despite these fewer showings, home units sold are nearly the same as 2023 while prices are up 9% YTD compared to just 1% this time last year. Essentially, this means the market is doing more (prices up) with relatively fewer showings (demand). Supply is the same, demand is lower, interest rates are about 0.5% higher, and prices are still up 9%. This indicates buyers are purchasing with more conviction this year and have become more accustomed to the higher interest rate environment compared to 2023.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 13% from May to June
  This is a notable departure from the average UP 2% during the last 6 years, pressuring inventory even more.
  
  
• June Listings DOWN 36% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-25%). The number of homes sold Jan-June (13,944) is DOWN 2% from last year (14,232).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and appear to be doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. So far, that has not happened with just 15,449 New Listings in Jan-Jun 2024 compared to 15,589 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are DOWN 1% YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio STEADY at 1.01 (shift toward buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 0.94 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (0.89 mos in Jun 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending July 7, there is a 20 pts spread between Listings (supply) and Showings (demand) benefiting buyers. Seller listings are 17% below the 2024 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 37%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers can now navigate with notably less competition than earlier in the year. Consistent with reduced demand, escalation is waning, home inspection and appraisal contingencies are returning as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were a few months ago (now 15%).
  
  
• Despite Lower Demand, Homes Still Selling Fast
  Last year, 64% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). So far, 68% of the homes YTD have sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this year compared to 16%.
  
  
• Fed June Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the June 12 meeting, while downgrading its forecast. In March, the Fed projected 3 rate cuts in 2024. At the June meeting, they revised this downward to just one possible cut. June's improved inflation numbers released last week may help the Fed's rate cut outlook. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on July 31.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 3%, FALLS 0.1% May to Jun
  As reported last week, inflation was in-line with expectations falling in June to 3% from May's 3.3% year-to-year, and registered a promising 0.1% decline month-to-month (first time since 2020). While inflation is making a bid at the long-awaited 2% range, it remains stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 13 consecutive months. The futures market responded with optimism hitting an 89% probability of a September rate cut (growing to 95%+ by November-December). This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS; Ranges in the 6's
  The national mortgage rate for a jumbo loan has relaxed from the late April high of 7.5% to the current 7%. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running about 0.50 to 0.75% less in the low to mid 6's. The Conventional Mortgage Rate has spent over 70% of the time during 2024 at 7% or higher.