March Highlights:

• MULTIPLE SUB-MARKETS HIT ALL-TIME PRICE HIGHS
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices UP 5.5%
  Northern Virginia and all major sub-markets including Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties hit new all-time price highs in March. Prices continue to benefit from low inventory.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Remain Strong
  Buyer Showings (demand) remain strong tracking 2023 numbers. Strong buyer showings are especially seen in certain localities and well-conditioned homes. The recent spike in interest rates appears to have caused about a 10 to 15% drop in showings.
  
  
• Listings UP 21% from February to March
  This is less than the typical UP 40%+ seen in the last 5 years. New Listings in March slowed somewhat compared to last March due to Spring Break/Easter this year hitting the March calendar compared to April last year.
  
  
• March Listings DOWN 38% vs. 5-year Average
  The number of homes sold thru March was down slightly from last year (-4%) relaxing off a positive number Jan-Feb (up 1%). This is likely due to Spring Break/Easter hitting the March calendar.
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023. However, analysts are expecting sellers to begin loosening up in 2024 bringing more inventory to market.
  
  
• Contract Ratio UP from 1.00 to 1.08 (seller-advantaged)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory Falls from 1.15 to 1.00 month
  Inventory is just about equal to last year's level (1.01 mos in March 2023).
  
  
• Buyer Showings Produce More Offers & Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price was up nearly two full points to 101% compared to 99% last March. Likewise, sellers have experienced a higher instance of multiple offers as well as waived contingencies like home inspections, financing, and appraisals. Buyers: Don't Despair. The market is nearing the usual Memorial Day pivot that occurs each year when buyers begin to navigate the market with some leverage.
  
  
• Faster to Contracts & More Cash Offers
  Last March, 63% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). This March, 71% of the homes sold in this range. There continues to be a notable increase in cash transactions with nearly 20% this March compared to 16% in March 2023.
  
  
• Buyers Confronted More Competition
  Buyers are confronting more competition on nearly all fronts. From showings to multiple offers, to escalating prices and waived contingencies, to fewer days on market. Waived contingencies mean fewer buyer contract cancellations now operating at 12-month lows falling to just 6.5% last week. 
  
  
• Fed March Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the March 20 meeting. Increased inflation in March is pushing expected rate cuts out even further. The futures market is pricing a 94% chance the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the May 1 meeting and a 75% chance of no change at the June meeting with a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% rate reduction in July. Remember, it was just three months ago when so-called experts were projecting 6 rate cuts this year!
  
  
• Headline Inflation RISES to 3.5%, UP 0.4% Feb to Mar
  As reported last week, inflation increased from last month's 3.2%. Month-to-month inflation remains hot at 0.4%. Inflation is stubbornly stuck in the 3% range for now 10 months. This is above the Fed's 2% target they said they wanted to see sustained for several months before reducing the Fed Funds rate.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate RISES Above 7%
  Mortgage rates have spiked to above 7.25% due to worsening inflation data last week. VA/FHA rates are running about 0.75% lower. The bond market reacted by bidding up rates. The bond market (which dictates rates) will need to see the same things it has been wanting to see: sustained lower inflation, softer economic data, and for the Fed to be seeing the same thing. Buyers have shown a propensity to move to the sidelines the past two years during rate spikes.