June Highlights:

• PRICES HOLD UP / BUYER SHOWINGS FALL TO LOW
  
  
• Northern Virginia Home Prices DOWN 1%
  Median price in Fairfax Co. ($721,900) breaks all-time high set last May.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Fall to Low in 2023
  Between the typical summer pivot and a rise in interest rates, Buyer Showings fall below January levels.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 3.1% from May to June
  This compares to typically DOWN 8% last 5 years.
  
  
• June Listings DOWN 38% vs. 5-year Average
  Number of homes sold Jan to June DOWN 27% (5,400 homes).
  
  
• "Discretionary Sellers" are Staying in Place
  
  
• Contract Ratio falls below 1.0 (shifting toward buyers)
  
  
• Persistent Low Inventory at just 1 month
  
  
• Sellers See Fewer Offers, Less Escalation
  Average Sold Price-to-List Price falls 0.4% to 101.4% (May to Jun).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending July 9, there is a 20 pts spread between Listings and Showings benefiting buyers. Seller listings are 17% below the 2023 highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 37%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers are able to navigate with less competition than experienced earlier in the year.
  
  
• Fed HOLDS at 5% in June (inflation dips below Fed)
  Fed signals two 0.25 point increases later in 2023, and suggests holding rates at these levels for the next two years. Currently, the markets are pricing in a 92% chance the Fed will raise rates 0.25 point at its next policy meeting on July 26.
  
  
• Headline Inflation falls to 3%, up 0.2% from May to June
  Inflation is way down from its June 2022 high of 9.1%, but don't expect that to relieve interest rates just yet. During the last six months, the average month-to-month increase is 0.3%. Annualized, this is 3.5 to 4% inflation, well above the Fed's 2% target they want to see sustained for several months before reducing rates.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates Rise Above 7%
  Rising rates continue to cut buyer purchasing power, consequently sidelining even more buyers at a time of year when showings are seasonally down.