Home Prices Trend Up in April
April Prices Increased 4.9% from March: The median home price in Northern Virginia continued to trend up hitting a new high of $645,000, adding another $30,000 to last month's $615,000 median price. All major sub-markets in Northern Virginia increased in price with Loudoun leading at 6%, Fairfax (5%) and Prince William (1%). Arlington was the only sub-market declining in April (-1%).

The unrelenting increase in interest rates is impacting buyer behavior. Since January, interest rates have increased from 3.64 to 5.64% (55%). This is the fastest five-month increase in rates since 1980. Northern Virginia has not seen rates above 5.5% since 2009. Consequently, the mortgage payment for an average loan ($600,000) has increased $720/mo since January. Alternatively, buyers have lost $150,000 in purchasing power when trying to maintain the same mortgage payment at 3.64% compared to 5.64%.

Showings | Interest Rates | New Listings
Interplay Between these Metrics will be Important: Just like when the housing market experienced a buyer surge in late 2020 after interest rates fell 40%, we can expect a shift in buyer behavior resulting from the recent 55% increase in rates. Our best metric to track the number of buyers in the market is showing appointments. Since March, showings in Virginia have fallen 24% while interest rates have continued to move markedly higher. Despite the fall in showings (buyers), we continue to experience consistently strong pricing and seller-advantaged contingencies. This may be a result of New Listings declining 12% in 2022. Meaning, there have been nearly 2,300 fewer Northern Virginia homes offered for sale from Jan-Apr 2022 than in the same 2021 period. What we may be seeing is the elimination of the "excess number of buyers" participating in the market since 2020-21, producing what appears to be a developing more balanced market.