
Low Inventory, Interest Rates & Strong Economy
The housing market has dramatically moved further in the seller's favor during the last six months. The market has been operating in a 'Seller Advantaged' environment for several years, but particularly the recent fall in interest rates from 4% to 2.5% (40% decline) has intensified buyer demand. The market had already been experiencing pent-up demand due to the pandemic's Stay-at-Home orders putting a number of buyers on the sidelines. But add to this, action by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy. The result is a large excess number of buyers prospecting for housing product already in short supply. The position of the current market is much more so the result of buyer action (demand and interest rates) than seller action (lack of inventory). Market statistics prove this. While the housing market has experienced relatively low inventory in recent years, Northern Virginia listings were up 7% (~3,000 homes) in 2020 compared to 2019. Thus far in Jan-Feb 2021, there have been 23% more homes sold compared to Jan-Feb 2020. The difference between winning offer elements today and last year is squarely the result of buyer demand and the intensity to get what they want.
Top 5 Benefits Sellers are Receiving from Buyers in Today's Winning Offers
- Maximum Price: Sellers are receiving record-breaking Sold Price-to-List Price ratios with many homes being bid up 2 to 10% over seller ask, depending on the sub-market. This is occurring at all price points with some of the most extreme examples being in the $750,000 to $850,000 price class where some sellers are receiving $100,000 to $150,000+ over ask (15% over ask). This is a direct result of these sellers receiving 10 to 20+ offers after just a few days of showings. Less than 15% of homes are making it out of the first weekend's multiple offer environment.
- Low Contingency Risk: Sellers are receiving low contingency risk in buyer offers, including waived home inspections and waived appraisals. In certain cases, financing contingencies are even being waived by the strongest positioned buyers.
- Strong Lenders, Loans: Winning buyers are partnered with the strongest local lenders. The most competitive buyers have large cash down payments and Conventional loans (most seller-friendly loan type).
- Rent Backs & Other Terms: Many sellers are buyers too. They are confronting the same short supply when buying or renting their next home. The most competitive buyers are offering rent-backs after settlement if it benefits the seller. Buyers even offer free rent-backs to further increase the seller's net proceeds at closing. Buyers offer large deposits and quick closings, if necessary. Any buyers making their offer contingent on the sale or settlement of an existing home are just not competitive in the current market (Home Sale or Settlement Contingencies).
- Buyer-Agent Experience: Only the most prepared, experienced and resilient Buyer Agents are able to navigate the current market and get their buyers to a ratified contract and home purchase. With so many competing offers for the same home, now more than ever it takes a second and third-level thinking agent with abundant persistence to deliver an exceptional buyer outcome.
"My overarching objective is to be an advisor and value provider. I work to become the conduit of information to help consumers make the most informed decisions possible. I just happen to also have a real estate license." - Tim Trainum