COVID-19 Has Disrupted the Housing Market
This is clear from the two infographics above. One shows April activity and the other is July. To be sure, the pandemic has produced volatility. April activity was significantly down across the board in Northern Virginia due to the stay-at-home orders. Buyer showings were down 54% at their lows in early April compared to 2019. All activity snapped back in July as the economy re-opened. Through July, 8% fewer homes sold in Northern Virginia compared to last year, but prices are up by the same 8% ($42,000) meaning the same $12.8 billion has traded between buyers and sellers. Understanding this volatility and how to best position yourself can be confusing without the right real estate advisor.

What Comes Next? The Answer is Important to a Buy or Sell Decision
Here are the leading macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that I believe are most important to the residential real estate market. The interplay among these factors will influence prices and possibly your next move. Contact Me for a Consultation!

Top 5 Macroeconomic Factors (Longer-Term)

1. Demographics (Millennials vs. Baby Boomers)
2. Interest Rates (30-yr fixed at all-time lows - 2.75%)
3. Local Economy, U.S. Economy, Global Economy
4. Consumer Confidence (consumers control 70% of spending)
5. Fiscal & Monetary Policy (Federal Gov't & Federal Reserve)

Top 5 Microeconomic Factors (Shorter-Term)

1. Margin of Safety (present strength in the housing market)
2. Unemployment (how much can the housing market withstand)
3. Homeowner Forbearance (growing number of borrowers not current on mortgage payments)
4. Commercial R/E (current duress sparking a possible debt crisis contagion)
5. Stock Market (impacts on consumer confidence)

5+1 - It's an Election Year (elections have impacts)

"There's always a bull and bear case in any market at any time. The key is to understand your objectives against the present risk factors. This is when the best decisions are made." - Tim Trainum