

This is What Recovery May Look Like - Signals for a Delayed Spring Market
Here are some of the leading top-line metrics that best illustrate the health of the Northern Virginia residential real estate market in June. Listings are Up 15% from May, Pendings (Contracts) are Up 17%, Closed Transactions are Up 29%. The underlying strength that supported the housing market in previous months still persists - Prices are Up, Days on Market are Fewer, Sold-to-List Price Ratio is Up and Buyer Showings have Aggressively Snapped Back. June activity suggests the possibility of a delayed Spring Market (June, July & August). The tables are self-explanatory, but I offer a few highlights below:
- Listings, Contracts and Closed Transactions are All Aggressively Up Since May. Housing market behavior proved resilient in March and April during the near-total stoppage of economic activity across the U.S. Pent-up supply and demand have begun to unleash in June.
- Showings in Virginia bottomed during the first part of April (down 54%), but since have been experiencing a brisk and aggressive snap back. If fact, during the most recent week in July showings are actually up 20%+ compared to the same time in 2019.
- The Underlying Market Strength that persisted during the March and April shut-down continues. Buyer demand has pushed the median home price in Northern Virginia up $25,000 (5%) from $500,000 to $525,000 in June 2020 compared to the previous year. Likewise, homes are coming under contract faster with fewer days on market as well as holding firm Sold-to-List Price ratios. Added strength is evident in the mortgage market with interest rates remaining at all-time lows now in the high 2's. The Federal Reserve Bank recently indicated the Fed Funds Rate will remain at near 0% for the next two years. According to an online survey from LendingTree, 53% of buyers say they plan to buy a home within the next year as a result of low interest rates and factors surrounding the pandemic. First-time homebuyers are being especially pushed into action with 73% now planning to buy within the next year. Likewise, millennials are also now more motivated with 66% aiming for the same time frame.
- The Rental Market is Very Strong with apartments, townhomes and detached homes in the $1,250 to $6,000 rental price moving quickly. Inventory is low with equally low days on market. Many tenants are submitting multiple applications to improve the probability of acceptance and to meet their timing needs. The same rules for home buyers apply for tenants. Tenants expect well-conditioned homes in our Northern Virginia market and they will pay a rent premium for homes that show well. Rental properties in less than average condition tend to experience high days on market, rental price reductions and attract less than well-qualified tenants.
- Relatively Smaller, Independent Broker-Agent Business Models Continue to be Best Positioned to help buyers and sellers reach their objectives. This is statistically true in any market, but it becomes even more evident in challenging markets like now. Redfin, an employee-based broker model, furloughed 41% of its agents. Compass cut its staff by 15%, and publicly traded Realogy (owner of brands like Century 21, Coldwell Banker and Sotheby's) who was already struggling in recent years have experienced similar cuts. Each company, Zillow and others have all suspended iBuyer platforms they billed as technologically revolutionizing the R/E space, but in times like these it shows how ineffective the technology may be and where it truly ranks among the company's business priorities.
- Agent Expertise Matters even more now. The divide between Top Producing and low producing agents has grown even wider during this period. Buyers and sellers will find the best outcomes with high-value, leading agents who understand execution, process and best practices. My agency is calibrated to achieve exceptional results for my clients. I don't practice any other outcome.
"My overarching objective is first and foremost to be an advisor and value provider. I work to become the conduit of information to help consumers make the most informed decisions possible. I just happen to also have a real estate license." - Tim Trainum