How is the Real Estate Market?
This is perhaps the most popular question asked of a real estate agent. During the past six weeks since the "Temporary Stay at Home" order has been issued by the Governor of Virginia with guidance from the federal government, it has become the most frequent question asked of me. I have been asked this question by every consumer segment in real estate - homeowners, sellers, buyers, investors, landlords and tenants.
I thought it would be helpful to prepare the infographic above. It contains some of the leading top-line metrics that best illustrate the health of the Northern Virginia residential real estate market in March. As you know, the last half of March was the beginning of the "Stay at Home" order. In a few weeks, I will update you with April statistics when available. The table is self-explanatory, but I offer a few highlights below:
- Listings were down just 3.3% year-over-year in March compared to March 2019. New pendings are down 11.6%. However, surprisingly, these numbers are materially consistent with the rates of change experienced in the same March 2018 and March 2019 periods.
- Closed Sales are up 12.5% and the median home price in Northern Virginia is up 10.6% from $465,000 to $514,300.
- At a microeconomic level, my office sales are consistent with the overall Northern Virginia market at large. In December (pre-COVID), March goal was set at $9 million and we exceeded goal almost a week before the end of the month. My personal book of business is up dramatically from this time last year. I'm grateful to my clients - thank you for your continued trust and support!
- According to Buildium (one of the largest property management software companies), 70% of renters in the U.S. paid their rent on-time in April (down from 82% in April 2019). Buildium reported by April 19, 89% of rents were current (just 4 points behind the same time in April 2019). DC Metro area renters are performing well ahead of national statistics.
What Negative Changes Are We Seeing?
- Showings - the March Showing Index reported a 17.9% dip in nationwide showing traffic year-over-year. There is context here worth noting. Vacant townhomes and detached homes for sale are being shown in the relatively stronger numbers, especially the best conditioned and well-priced property. Occupied homes are experiencing fewer showings due to certain restrictions and safety protocol by owners/agents that of course were not being practiced pre-COVID. Condos are experiencing the highest drawdown in showings due to the common lobbies, hallways and elevators that have to be utilized for unit access which doesn't dovetail well with social distancing guidelines. Open Houses have been suspended by nearly all agents virtually moving many of the "research" buyers without agents to the sidelines.
- Transactional Buyers - the serious, transactional buyers are carrying the weight of current activity. Some have moved to the sidelines, but many are still out in force and they're absolutely benefitting from less competition and multiple offer activity which was commonplace pre-COVID. Homes that were experiencing several offers pre-COVID may now see one or two offers. While homes are still moving at a fast pace, there is presently a more tempered, balanced market of sellers and buyers that we haven't seen in recent years. Much of the current buyer sentiment believes this is a short-term event induced opportunity, rather than the beginning of a medium to long-term shift in the market. A certain segment of buyers who have been in the market for several months to a few years actually feel some pressure to act since they believe there is pent up demand presently building.
- COVID-19 Addendum - there is a new addendum created by area Realtor associations offered for buyer use in addition to the traditional Home Inspection and Financing/Appraisal Addenda. The purpose is to further protect a buyer's contingency risk in a contract.
- Contract Fall-Outs - given some of the instability in consumer behavior, there has been an increased instance of contract fall-outs during the COVID-19 period. We are seeing buyers in higher frequency change their minds and decide to void the contract inside the permitted contingency period. More homes are coming back onto the market for a second buyer opportunity.
A Few Other Points of Interest
- Low Days on Market (DOM) - the velocity at which property moves is still very fast. In March, 72% of homes for sale in Northern Virginia came under contract in the 0 to 10 days time frame. This percentage is even higher in specific sub-markets. In fact, during March every county and city in Northern Virginia experienced a higher velocity to contract compared to March 2019 (between 13 to 32% fewer DOM). The City of Fairfax and Fauquier County were the only two exceptions, experiencing higher DOM.
- Consumer Engagement has Skyrocketed - with a "Stay at Home" order in place everything real estate related is precipitously up online. This includes user activity, web hits, impressions and session time.
- Interest Rates - mortgage rates are at all-time lows. Buyers with good credit can secure a 30-yr fixed-rate loan in the low 3's. We may see upper 2's soon.
"My overarching objective is first and foremost to be an advisor and value provider. I work to become the conduit of information to help consumers make the most informed decisions possible. I just happen to also have a real estate license." - Tim Trainum