August Highlights:

• PRICES UP 7.8% YTD
  
  
• Northern Virginia Prices STEADY +0.3%
  Northern Virginia prices held steady in August (contracts written in July). The July-Aug price move (+0.3%) was consistent with the last 6 years averaging DOWN 1%. The Jan-Aug YTD average price in Northern Virginia fell 90bp from 8.7 to 7.8% compared to the previous month's Jan-Jul YTD number. From July to December, the market typically gives back 40 to 75% of the price gains experienced in the January through the May/June peak.
  
  
• Buyer Showings Spike after Labor Day
  Buyer showings (demand) spiked 30% off the August lows reclaiming the July showing highs. The September spike is normal after Labor Day renewing sales activity in September and October just before the November and December holiday decline. Overall, buyer showings in 2024 have tracked about 15 to 20% less than 2023.
  
  
• Listings DOWN 8% from July to August
  This is on pace with the typical average DOWN 9% during the last 6 years.
  
  
• August Listings DOWN 31% vs. 5-year Average
  Seller listings have stabilized in 2024 and resisted the continued downtrend experienced in recent years. However, listings remain down significantly compared to long-term averages (-31%). Remarkably, the number of Northern Virginia homes sold from Jan-Aug (19,397) is almost exactly the same as last year (19,407).
  
  
• Rate Locked "Discretionary Sellers" STILL Staying in Place
  These sellers largely "stayed in place" in 2023 and are doing the same in 2024, despite forecasts by economists. In late 2023, economists projected inventory would loosen up in 2024 rising 15% over 2023. That has not happened with just 20,512 New Listings in Jan-Aug 2024 compared to 20,631 last year. Instead of Listings (inventory) increasing 15% as forecast, they are unchanged YTD.
  
  
• Contract Ratio FALLS to 0.74 (shift toward buyers)
  Listings Under Contract represent 42% of the total August listings compared to those available and Active for sale at 58%.
  

• Persistent Low Inventory STEADY at 1.11 month
  Inventory level on pace with last year (1.08 mos in Aug 2023).
  
  
• Buyers: The Summer Pivot is Underway
  As of the week ending September 8, there is a 29 pts spread between Listings (supply) and Showings (demand) benefiting buyers. Seller listings are equal to annual highs seen in April, while buyer showings are down 29%. It's certainly still a seller's market, but buyers have been navigating with notably less competition than earlier in the year. Buyer contract prices averaged 99.2% of Seller Asking in August with buyer contingencies back in play as evidenced by contract cancellation rates being more than double where they were in the spring (now 15%).
  
  
• Despite Lower Demand, Homes Still Selling Fast
  Last year, 65% of homes sold in the fastest range (0 to 10 days). Homes are selling slightly faster this year with 66% traded in the fastest range. Cash transactions represent 17% of the purchases, up 1 point from last year.
  
  
• Fed July Meeting: RATES HELD at 5.25%
  The Fed held rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting. However, the long-awaited September 18 meeting is scheduled this week when the Fed is expected to begin reducing rates. The futures market is presently showing a 100% chance of a rate cut. The market is split 50/50 on whether it will be a minimum 0.25% cut, or a more aggressive 0.50%.
  
  
• Headline Inflation FALLS to 2.5%, RISES 0.2% Jul to Aug
  As reported last week, inflation continued to fall as anticipated from July's 2.9% to 2.5% year-to-year. This is the second consecutive month in the 2's after being firmly stuck in the 3-range for 13 consecutive months. The looming Fed rate cut is a departure from their long-held guidance they wanted to see 2% inflation for several months before reducing.
  
  
• Conventional Mortgage Rate FALLS; Now in the 5's
  Mortgage rates continued to advance their decline in recent weeks breaking through the 5's. In part, due to the strengthening Fed position about a September rate cut, but also because investors moved to treasuries during declining stock prices. Rates have fallen 1+ point in the last two months to levels not seen since February 2023. Conforming and VA/FHA rates are running in the mid to low 5's with jumbo loans in mid 6's (jumbo loan is > $1,149,825).